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Intrinsic value of American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

Previous Close$16.26
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$16.26
Use floor (the cash flow based valuation has rendered a result, which is lower than an estimated minimum value derived from the company’s balance sheet analysis)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Cash & ST Investments
Total debt
Market cap, m$
10,532

Based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-03-31.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %72.4NaN
Revenue, $29882NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m30941NaN
Operating income, $m-1059NaN
EBITDA, $m1276NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m-2548NaN
Tax expense, $m-555NaN
Net income, $m-1993NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m13421NaN
Total assets, $m66467NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m53046NaN
Average production assets, $m44662NaN
Working capital, $m-1670NaN
Total debt, $m46177NaN
Total liabilities, $m73807NaN
Total equity, $m-7340NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio-6.291NaN
Adjusted equity ratio-0.316NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-1993NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m2335NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m704NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-15NaN
Free cash flow, $m719NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-1670
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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