Intrinsic value of American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

other valuations of AAL

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  See other valuations of AAL stock

Previous Close$21.20
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$21.20

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2021-03-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-62.1NaN
Revenue, $17337NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m27758NaN
Operating income, $m-10421NaN
EBITDA, $m-8051NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m-11453NaN
Tax expense, $m-2568NaN
Net income, $m-8885NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m7473NaN
Total assets, $m62008NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m54535NaN
Average production assets, $m39495NaN
Working capital, $m-5474NaN
Total debt, $m32593NaN
Total liabilities, $m68875NaN
Total equity, $m-6867NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio-4.746NaN
Adjusted equity ratio-0.212NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-8885NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m2370NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m-6543NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-1607NaN
Free cash flow, $m-4936NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-5474
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN