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Intrinsic value of The Progressive Corporation (PGR)

Previous Close$118.28
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$118.28
* Our model cannot be used “out of the box” for the valuation of this stock. You can still do your own valuation by changing the valuation input parameters.

VALUATION INPUT DATA (original, your and others' valuations)

ParameterOrig.Your
Date of valuation (DoV)  
Intrinsic value (IV) at DoV, $/sh  
IV at current val. algorithm, $/sh74.21 

The original valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-03-31.

Registered users can save their valuation input data

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

Company description

The Progressive Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial auto insurance, residential property insurance, and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services primarily in the United States. Its Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos, and recreational and other vehicles. This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, and snowmobiles. The company's Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and non-fleet long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; and non-fleet taxis, black-car services, and airport taxis. Its Property segment provides residential property insurance for homes, condos, manufactured homes, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; home, condominium, renters, and other insurance; and business owner's policies, general liability, professional liability, and workers' compensation insurance. In addition, it offers reinsurance services. The Progressive Corporation sells its products and services through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %11.8NaN
Revenue, $47677NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m42970NaN
Operating income, $m4707NaN
EBITDA, $m5175NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m4183NaN
Tax expense, $m859NaN
Net income, $m3324NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m202NaN
Total assets, $m66850NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m66648NaN
Average production assets, $m1888NaN
Working capital, $m-33267NaN
Total debt, $m5080NaN
Total liabilities, $m48618NaN
Total equity, $m18232NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.279NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.271NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m3324NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m468NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m7762NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-177NaN
Free cash flow, $m7939NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-33267
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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