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Intrinsic value of XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO)

Previous Close$59.86
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$59.86
Use floor (the cash flow based valuation has rendered a result, which is lower than an estimated minimum value derived from the company’s balance sheet analysis)

VALUATION INPUT DATA (original, your and others' valuations)

ParameterOrig.Your
Date of valuation (DoV)  
Intrinsic value (IV) at DoV, $/sh  
IV at current val. algorithm, $/sh33.82 

The original valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-03-31.

Registered users can save their valuation input data

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

Company description

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides supply chain solutions in North America, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, Poland, Romania, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Transportation and Logistics. The Transportation segment offers freight brokerage services comprising truck brokerage, intermodal, drayage, and expedite services; last mile services, primarily asset-light; density and day-definite regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental less-than-truckload freight services; full truckload services for transactional transportation of packaged goods, high cube products, and bulk goods; logistics services for domestic, cross-border, and international shipments; and managed transportation services. The Logistics segment provides a range of contract logistics services, including value-added warehousing, distribution and inventory management, omnichannel and e-commerce fulfillment, order personalization, cold chain solutions, reverse logistics, packaging and labeling, and factory and aftermarket support. This segment also offers engineered and customized solutions, and supply chain optimization services, including automation and predictive volume flow management solutions. It provides its services to customers in various industries, such as retail, e-commerce, food and beverage, technology, aerospace, wireless, manufacturing and other industrial, chemical, agribusiness, life sciences, healthcare, and consumer packaged goods. XPO Logistics, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %25.6NaN
Revenue, $12806NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m12190NaN
Operating income, $m616NaN
EBITDA, $m1092NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m410NaN
Tax expense, $m87NaN
Net income, $m323NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m260NaN
Total assets, $m8707NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m8447NaN
Average production assets, $m5861NaN
Working capital, $m139NaN
Total debt, $m4494NaN
Total liabilities, $m7569NaN
Total equity, $m1138NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio3.949NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.131NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m323NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m476NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m721NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-181NaN
Free cash flow, $m902NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m139
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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