US · ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
- Sector
- Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
- Headquarters
- New York City, NY 10019
- Website
- apolloreit.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$11.04
Market cap 1.48B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $34.13 | +209.15% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $7.58 | -31.34% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $1.34 | -87.84% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $8.47 | -23.31% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $3.32 | $27.84 | $13.33 | $1.34 | $89.75 |
| 2012 | $4.01 | $22.17 | $8.47 | $9.56 | $32.07 |
| 2013 | $4.32 | $27.43 | $1.93 | $0.05 | $64.87 |
| 2014 | $4.81 | $37.89 | $15.99 | $3.22 | $124.00 |
| 2015 | $5.13 | $28.15 | $0.00 | $4.56 | $114.63 |
| 2016 | $6.40 | $29.37 | $0.00 | $4.41 | $123.74 |
| 2017 | $7.34 | $26.44 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $10.54 |
| 2018 | $7.84 | $84.83 | $2.09 | $0.00 | $88.31 |
| 2019 | $7.87 | $63.01 | $9.05 | $0.00 | $40.02 |
| 2020 | $8.19 | $23.19 | $5.87 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2021 | $8.24 | $57.86 | $9.84 | $1.59 | $47.84 |
| 2022 | $7.04 | $64.07 | $1.35 | $3.47 | $109.58 |
| 2023 | $8.80 | $27.63 | $6.80 | $0.00 | $11.69 |
| 2024 | $9.04 | $25.53 | $6.20 | $0.00 | $1.06 |
| 2025 | $10.67 | $34.13 | $5.44 | $1.34 | $8.47 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s (ARI) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $34.13
- Current price
- $11.04
- AI upside
- +209.15%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$7.58
-31.34% upside
Graham-Dodd
$1.34
-87.84% upside
Graham Formula
$8.47
-23.31% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real Es… | $11.04 | 1.48B | +209% | -31% | -88% | -23% | 11.69 | 0.80 | 2.09 | 15.48 | — | 0.80 | 80.05% | 65.36% | 17.84% | 6.79% | 5.27% | 1.38% | 4.27 | 1.01 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 13.00 | -18351.00% | 128.00% | 3759.00% | 2.86% | 0.20 | 0.48% | 10.36% | 121.20% | 10.36% | 19.94 | 218.85 | 13.03 | 0.16 |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT, … | $17.95 | 2.01B | +1,612% | -22% | — | +8,183% | 7.93 | 0.74 | 1.29 | 20.27 | — | 0.74 | 97.02% | 73.91% | 24.72% | 11.69% | 9.00% | 1.23% | 7.94 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 18.53 | -74706.00% | 44408.00% | -5250.00% | 7.40% | 0.01 | 1.16% | 16.89% | 133.90% | 18.08% | 20.27 | 157.46 | 14.98 | -0.96 |
| CIM | Chimera Investment Corpor… | $13.61 | 1.13B | +899% | +24% | +118% | +4,369% | 4.23 | 0.44 | 1.37 | 17.51 | 2.82 | 0.44 | 94.87% | 93.16% | 28.08% | 10.45% | 5.44% | 1.84% | 5.08 | 1.38 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 16.09 | 15000.00% | 21822.00% | -22101.00% | -22.07% | -0.04 | -1.79% | 7.63% | 32.30% | 7.63% | 18.20 | -55.93 | 16.96 | -0.34 |
| DX | Dynex Capital, Inc. | $14.03 | 2.06B | +766% | -52% | +133% | +613% | 5.40 | 0.70 | 4.10 | 19.92 | 8.20 | 0.70 | 100.00% | 175.59% | 75.89% | 17.50% | 6.46% | 2.50% | 5.65 | 1.76 | — | — | 17.59 | 6577.00% | 3220.00% | 73950.00% | 7.02% | — | 1.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.92 | 121.70 | 34.97 | 0.27 |
| EFC | Ellington Financial Inc. | $12.42 | 1.18B | -33% | -61% | — | +139% | 7.15 | 0.67 | 3.76 | — | 13.12 | 0.69 | 100.00% | 41.20% | 51.69% | 9.59% | 1.45% | 0.94% | 0.00 | 0.42 | — | — | — | 5455.00% | 1001.00% | 7801.00% | -40.63% | — | -5.38% | 15.43% | 110.40% | 1272.46% | 7.46 | -2.01 | 3.07 | 0.05 |
| IIPR | Innovative Industrial Pro… | $52.96 | 1.49B | -8% | -23% | +62% | — | 13.14 | 0.81 | 5.65 | 8.86 | — | 0.82 | 88.65% | 46.67% | 43.03% | 6.05% | 5.80% | 4.82% | 0.21 | 6.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1.66 | -2880.00% | -1380.00% | -3238.00% | 11.62% | 0.62 | 8.16% | 0.05% | 0.70% | 1.39% | 14.90 | 10.58 | 6.95 | 1.69 |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate Finance T… | $6.95 | 455.15M | +603% | -0% | — | +39% | -9.59 | 0.41 | 1.06 | 18.53 | — | 0.41 | 88.30% | 59.31% | -10.27% | -4.01% | 4.54% | -0.79% | 4.00 | 0.84 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 16.76 | -65263.00% | -2272.00% | -4641.00% | 13.77% | 0.21 | 1.12% | 18.20% | -174.60% | 65.31% | 18.75 | 76.36 | 11.12 | 0.11 |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | $10.37 | 1.32B | +157% | -57% | -97% | — | 20.63 | 0.89 | 3.35 | 17.63 | — | 1.68 | 71.77% | 62.04% | 16.36% | 4.22% | 5.55% | 1.27% | 2.37 | 1.39 | 0.50 | 20.40 | 12.79 | -4070.00% | -2326.00% | -3502.00% | 6.62% | 0.80 | 2.09% | 8.94% | 184.30% | 9.83% | 19.67 | 55.00 | 12.20 | 0.36 |
| MFA | MFA Financial, Inc. | $10.11 | 1.03B | +259% | -60% | +101% | +3,473% | 6.00 | 0.58 | 1.21 | 1.23 | 5.72 | 0.58 | 96.18% | 78.84% | 20.20% | 9.64% | 11.21% | 1.45% | 0.00 | 1.34 | — | — | -0.31 | 10488.00% | 21302.00% | -6190.00% | 7.19% | — | 1.24% | 3.80% | 22.80% | 860.43% | 1.23 | 11.12 | 0.97 | 0.11 |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investm… | $12.26 | 1.07B | +1,511% | -50% | — | +2,817% | 8.29 | 0.56 | 0.61 | 20.42 | — | -0.60 | 91.61% | 78.96% | 7.33% | 6.68% | 5.31% | 0.72% | 10.12 | 1.58 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 19.52 | -2774.00% | 24581.00% | -10521.00% | 13.42% | 0.02 | 0.86% | 17.09% | 141.70% | 17.19% | 14.29 | 138.40 | 11.29 | -0.15 |
| TRTX | TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc… | $8.46 | 662.87M | +278% | -60% | -100% | +1,033% | 11.21 | 0.63 | 2.03 | 2.24 | — | 0.63 | 79.30% | 72.97% | 18.14% | 5.53% | 10.78% | 1.48% | 0.00 | 1.28 | 60.19 | 60.19 | -0.33 | -2597.00% | 12325.00% | -1540.00% | 13.36% | 46.58 | 4.04% | 13.47% | 151.00% | 381.82% | 2.43 | 6.52 | 1.77 | 0.20 |
About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.
- CEO
- Stuart A. Rothstein
- Employees
- 0
- Beta
- 1.56
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($7.58 ÷ $11.04) − 1 = -31.34% (DCF, example).