2020-11-05 We have changed the algorithm that is used to calculate the forecasted revenue growth, which is by far the most important factor in stock valuation.This has lead to significant, sometimes drastic, changes to the intrinsic value estimation for most stocks.Mind you, there was no change in the stock valuation model itself - just to one, albeit the most important, input to the model.We always advised users of this site to verify all input parameters and adjust them based on expected future performance of the company.The input parameters that are displayed as default are derived by a computational algorithm from historical financial statements and are not adjusted in any way.So, in essence, relying just on these parameters is similar to driving a car forward while looking in the rear - view mirror.We offer you a great tool for estimating intrinsic value of stocks, but the correctness of such estimation depends on your ability to correctly forecast the company’s future performance.
2020-11-01 There is only one meaningful test for a stock valuation model: see whether actual stock prices approach their intrinsic values as calculated by the model.While the results could be wildly different for individual stocks, when a sufficiently large collection of stocks is observed it is possible to use methods of statistical analysis to make conclusions about the validity of the model’s predictive ability.
2020-10-25 Today we have added a chart with historical intrinsic value data to intrinsic stock valuation pages. The chart shows the stock price and its intrinsic value on the the 1st of the month two months after the end of each fiscal year. This two-month lag was added in order to make sure that the year-end results are published and are reflected in the stock price. These are unadjusted numbers - purely a result of algorithmic valuation.
2020-10-18 We have added backtesting for our stock screeners. This is a unique feature not available elsewhere. We show actual average one-year performance of stocks selected according to chosen screener parameters for the data available at the start of the previous fiscal year for each stock. This performance is compared with the price change of the S&P500 index, which is calculated as the average of its performance over individual fiscal-year periods of each stock.