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Intrinsic Value of Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)

Previous Close$20.72
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$20.72

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2023 and quarterly data as of 2023-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-30.5-28.7-27.0-25.4-23.9-22.5-21.1-19.8-18.6-17.4-16.3-15.2-14.2-13.2-12.3-11.4-10.6-9.8-9.1-8.4-7.7-7.1-6.5-5.9-5.4
Revenue, $95367949536928121817213811293786657494338343128262422211918
Variable operating expenses, $m7025003652722071611271028368574942363228252321191716151413
Fixed operating expenses, $m2953203473774094444815225676156677247858529241003108811811281139015081636177519262090
Total operating expenses, $m9978207126496166056086246506837247738278889561031111312041302140915251652179019402103
Operating income, $m-44-141-217-280-335-386-436-486-537-590-646-706-770-839-913-993-1079-1172-1274-1383-1502-1630-1770-1921-2085
EBITDA, $m13-101-188-259-319-374-427-479-531-586-643-703-767-837-911-991-1077-1171-1272-1382-1501-1629-1769-1920-2084
Interest expense (income), $m7831191151-2-4-5-6-7-8-9-9-9-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-11-11
Earnings before tax, $m-122-173-236-290-340-387-434-482-532-584-639-698-762-830-904-983-1069-1162-1263-1373-1491-1620-1759-1910-2074
Tax expense, $m0000000000000000000000000
Net income, $m-122-173-236-290-340-387-434-482-532-584-639-698-762-830-904-983-1069-1162-1263-1373-1491-1620-1759-1910-2074

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m1524108679359145034927522118014812410591796961554945413835333129
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m1524108679359145034927522118014812410591796961554945413835333129
Average production assets, $m468333243181138107846855463832282421191715141312111099
Working capital, $m1299267503829231915131098765544333332
Total debt, $m78047426812728-43-94-132-161-183-200-213-223-232-239-244-249-252-256-258-260-262-264-265-266
Total liabilities, $m1067760555414315244193154126104877463554843383431292625232220
Total equity, $m457326238177135105836654453732272421181615131211111099
Debt-to-equity ratio4.2552.3941.9921.5120.9410.268-0.518-1.423-2.455-3.614-4.901-6.313-7.844-9.483-11.221-13.041-14.929-16.866-18.835-20.817-22.791-24.741-26.647-28.493-30.264
Adjusted equity ratio0.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.300

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-122-173-236-290-340-387-434-482-532-584-639-698-762-830-904-983-1069-1162-1263-1373-1491-1620-1759-1910-2074
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m5840282116129765433222211111111
Funds from operations, $m-65-133-207-270-324-376-425-475-526-579-635-695-759-828-902-981-1068-1161-1262-1372-1490-1619-1758-1909-2073
Change in working capital, $m-56-37-25-17-12-9-6-5-3-3-2-2-1-1-1-1-100000000
Cash from operations, $m-8-96-183-253-313-367-419-470-522-576-633-693-758-827-901-981-1067-1161-1262-1371-1490-1619-1758-1909-2073
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-58-40-28-21-16-12-9-7-6-5-4-3-3-2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1
New CAPEX, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total CAPEX, $m-58-40-28-21-16-12-9-7-6-5-4-3-3-2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1
Free cash flow, $m-66-136-211-273-328-379-428-477-528-581-637-697-760-829-903-983-1069-1162-1263-1372-1491-1620-1759-1910-2074
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m031141225294355410464518574631692757826901981106711611262137214901619175819102074
Retained Cash Flow, $m316131886042302216129764432221111110
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-9
Cash available for distribution, $m178000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %5.806.096.396.717.057.407.778.168.579.009.459.9210.4210.9411.4812.0612.6613.2913.9614.6615.3916.1616.9717.8118.71
PV of cash for distribution, $m168000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100915724720000000000000000000