Fiscal year | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -30.5 | -28.7 | -27.0 | -25.4 | -23.9 | -22.5 | -21.1 | -19.8 | -18.6 | -17.4 | -16.3 | -15.2 | -14.2 | -13.2 | -12.3 | -11.4 | -10.6 | -9.8 | -9.1 | -8.4 | -7.7 | -7.1 | -6.5 | -5.9 | -5.4 |
Revenue, $ | | 953 | 679 | 495 | 369 | 281 | 218 | 172 | 138 | 112 | 93 | 78 | 66 | 57 | 49 | 43 | 38 | 34 | 31 | 28 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 18 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 702 | 500 | 365 | 272 | 207 | 161 | 127 | 102 | 83 | 68 | 57 | 49 | 42 | 36 | 32 | 28 | 25 | 23 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 295 | 320 | 347 | 377 | 409 | 444 | 481 | 522 | 567 | 615 | 667 | 724 | 785 | 852 | 924 | 1003 | 1088 | 1181 | 1281 | 1390 | 1508 | 1636 | 1775 | 1926 | 2090 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 997 | 820 | 712 | 649 | 616 | 605 | 608 | 624 | 650 | 683 | 724 | 773 | 827 | 888 | 956 | 1031 | 1113 | 1204 | 1302 | 1409 | 1525 | 1652 | 1790 | 1940 | 2103 |
Operating income, $m | | -44 | -141 | -217 | -280 | -335 | -386 | -436 | -486 | -537 | -590 | -646 | -706 | -770 | -839 | -913 | -993 | -1079 | -1172 | -1274 | -1383 | -1502 | -1630 | -1770 | -1921 | -2085 |
EBITDA, $m | | 13 | -101 | -188 | -259 | -319 | -374 | -427 | -479 | -531 | -586 | -643 | -703 | -767 | -837 | -911 | -991 | -1077 | -1171 | -1272 | -1382 | -1501 | -1629 | -1769 | -1920 | -2084 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 78 | 31 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 1 | -2 | -4 | -5 | -6 | -7 | -8 | -9 | -9 | -9 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -11 | -11 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | -122 | -173 | -236 | -290 | -340 | -387 | -434 | -482 | -532 | -584 | -639 | -698 | -762 | -830 | -904 | -983 | -1069 | -1162 | -1263 | -1373 | -1491 | -1620 | -1759 | -1910 | -2074 |
Tax expense, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | -122 | -173 | -236 | -290 | -340 | -387 | -434 | -482 | -532 | -584 | -639 | -698 | -762 | -830 | -904 | -983 | -1069 | -1162 | -1263 | -1373 | -1491 | -1620 | -1759 | -1910 | -2074 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 1524 | 1086 | 793 | 591 | 450 | 349 | 275 | 221 | 180 | 148 | 124 | 105 | 91 | 79 | 69 | 61 | 55 | 49 | 45 | 41 | 38 | 35 | 33 | 31 | 29 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 1524 | 1086 | 793 | 591 | 450 | 349 | 275 | 221 | 180 | 148 | 124 | 105 | 91 | 79 | 69 | 61 | 55 | 49 | 45 | 41 | 38 | 35 | 33 | 31 | 29 |
Average production assets, $m | | 468 | 333 | 243 | 181 | 138 | 107 | 84 | 68 | 55 | 46 | 38 | 32 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
Working capital, $m | | 129 | 92 | 67 | 50 | 38 | 29 | 23 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Total debt, $m | | 780 | 474 | 268 | 127 | 28 | -43 | -94 | -132 | -161 | -183 | -200 | -213 | -223 | -232 | -239 | -244 | -249 | -252 | -256 | -258 | -260 | -262 | -264 | -265 | -266 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 1067 | 760 | 555 | 414 | 315 | 244 | 193 | 154 | 126 | 104 | 87 | 74 | 63 | 55 | 48 | 43 | 38 | 34 | 31 | 29 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 20 |
Total equity, $m | | 457 | 326 | 238 | 177 | 135 | 105 | 83 | 66 | 54 | 45 | 37 | 32 | 27 | 24 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 4.255 | 2.394 | 1.992 | 1.512 | 0.941 | 0.268 | -0.518 | -1.423 | -2.455 | -3.614 | -4.901 | -6.313 | -7.844 | -9.483 | -11.221 | -13.041 | -14.929 | -16.866 | -18.835 | -20.817 | -22.791 | -24.741 | -26.647 | -28.493 | -30.264 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | -122 | -173 | -236 | -290 | -340 | -387 | -434 | -482 | -532 | -584 | -639 | -698 | -762 | -830 | -904 | -983 | -1069 | -1162 | -1263 | -1373 | -1491 | -1620 | -1759 | -1910 | -2074 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 58 | 40 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Funds from operations, $m | | -65 | -133 | -207 | -270 | -324 | -376 | -425 | -475 | -526 | -579 | -635 | -695 | -759 | -828 | -902 | -981 | -1068 | -1161 | -1262 | -1372 | -1490 | -1619 | -1758 | -1909 | -2073 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -56 | -37 | -25 | -17 | -12 | -9 | -6 | -5 | -3 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cash from operations, $m | | -8 | -96 | -183 | -253 | -313 | -367 | -419 | -470 | -522 | -576 | -633 | -693 | -758 | -827 | -901 | -981 | -1067 | -1161 | -1262 | -1371 | -1490 | -1619 | -1758 | -1909 | -2073 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -58 | -40 | -28 | -21 | -16 | -12 | -9 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -4 | -3 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -58 | -40 | -28 | -21 | -16 | -12 | -9 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -4 | -3 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -66 | -136 | -211 | -273 | -328 | -379 | -428 | -477 | -528 | -581 | -637 | -697 | -760 | -829 | -903 | -983 | -1069 | -1162 | -1263 | -1372 | -1491 | -1620 | -1759 | -1910 | -2074 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 31 | 141 | 225 | 294 | 355 | 410 | 464 | 518 | 574 | 631 | 692 | 757 | 826 | 901 | 981 | 1067 | 1161 | 1262 | 1372 | 1490 | 1619 | 1758 | 1910 | 2074 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 316 | 131 | 88 | 60 | 42 | 30 | 22 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | -9 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 178 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 5.80 | 6.09 | 6.39 | 6.71 | 7.05 | 7.40 | 7.77 | 8.16 | 8.57 | 9.00 | 9.45 | 9.92 | 10.42 | 10.94 | 11.48 | 12.06 | 12.66 | 13.29 | 13.96 | 14.66 | 15.39 | 16.16 | 16.97 | 17.81 | 18.71 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 168 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 91 | 57 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |