US · MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
- Sector
- Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- Headquarters
- Findlay, OH 45840-3229
- Website
- marathonpetroleum.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$246.15
Market cap 59.58B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $169.52 | -31.13% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $83.93 | -65.9% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $92.44 | -62.44% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $49.50 | -79.89% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $14.67 | $6.23 | $1,162.00 | $9.08 | $110.08 |
| 2012 | $30.49 | $32.00 | $282.27 | $31.59 | $62.08 |
| 2013 | $31.47 | $12.85 | $653.94 | $20.95 | $96.55 |
| 2014 | $34.35 | $15.60 | $0.00 | $24.29 | $25.66 |
| 2015 | $27.67 | $18.51 | $0.00 | $26.38 | $0.00 |
| 2016 | $37.82 | $16.34 | $0.00 | $9.54 | $0.00 |
| 2017 | $54.75 | $39.19 | $0.00 | $31.28 | $169.93 |
| 2018 | $46.06 | $41.34 | $5.00 | $28.15 | $121.66 |
| 2019 | $32.63 | $34.89 | $683.57 | $15.57 | $144.30 |
| 2020 | $51.00 | $20.40 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $415.63 |
| 2021 | $71.85 | $48.61 | $4,034.38 | $70.00 | $1,182.69 |
| 2022 | $120.52 | $142.57 | $23,261.45 | $142.32 | $1,526.79 |
| 2023 | $172.12 | $159.96 | $16,675.76 | $112.16 | $0.00 |
| 2024 | $134.66 | $110.59 | $277.97 | $27.61 | $20.29 |
| 2025 | $209.82 | $169.52 | $0.00 | $92.44 | $49.50 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (MPC) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $169.52
- Current price
- $246.15
- AI upside
- -31.13%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$83.93
-65.9% upside
Graham-Dodd
$92.44
-62.44% upside
Graham Formula
$49.50
-79.89% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corpor… | $246.15 | 59.58B | -31% | -66% | -62% | -80% | 15.81 | 3.70 | 0.48 | 8.20 | 50.17 | 12.20 | 7.43% | 4.90% | 3.05% | 23.09% | 11.92% | 4.97% | 1.98 | 5.09 | 1.26 | 0.19 | 2.66 | 3152.00% | -455.00% | -2226.00% | 7.45% | 0.42 | 10.44% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.58 | 19.86 | 0.71 | 3.21 |
| E | Eni S.p.A. | $46.94 | 69.86B | -54% | -67% | -78% | -88% | 15.36 | 0.77 | 0.46 | 2.63 | — | 0.87 | 11.36% | 5.90% | 2.96% | 4.98% | 3.14% | 1.82% | 0.66 | 3.93 | 1.14 | 0.71 | 1.16 | -4143.00% | -525.00% | -1374.00% | 12.55% | 0.34 | 7.16% | 7.90% | 121.40% | 12.86% | 11.56 | 11.89 | 0.68 | 1.37 |
| EOG | EOG Resources, Inc. | $124.08 | 67.33B | +9% | -30% | -67% | -64% | 13.93 | 2.33 | 3.07 | 6.58 | — | 2.33 | 68.11% | 35.14% | 22.07% | 16.83% | 20.04% | 10.06% | 0.28 | 36.05 | 1.92 | 1.64 | 0.44 | -1902.00% | -347.00% | -3192.00% | 5.66% | 2.71 | 12.64% | 3.12% | 43.40% | 6.81% | 9.38 | 18.93 | 3.30 | 3.72 |
| EPD | Enterprise Products Partn… | $36.14 | 78.25B | +28% | -57% | -32% | -85% | 13.88 | 2.68 | 1.53 | 8.20 | — | 3.99 | 13.61% | 13.13% | 11.05% | 19.76% | 15.09% | 7.50% | 0.05 | 4.93 | 1.04 | 0.08 | 0.07 | -112.00% | -644.00% | -10000.00% | 0.00% | 0.67 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 38.44% | 11.78 | — | 1.55 | 59.25 |
| EQNR | Equinor ASA | $29.83 | 75.62B | +69% | +16% | — | -24% | 16.44 | 2.06 | 0.78 | 2.67 | — | 2.41 | 26.84% | 25.70% | 4.77% | 12.22% | 21.09% | 3.85% | 0.83 | 18.94 | 1.24 | 0.99 | 0.78 | -3730.00% | 356.00% | -2442.00% | 7.21% | 0.65 | 11.58% | 5.78% | 95.00% | 12.92% | 3.56 | 16.22 | 0.92 | 2.61 |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | $18.84 | 64.82B | -27% | -6% | — | -42% | 12.21 | 2.03 | 0.84 | 9.38 | 223.33 | 3.25 | 21.79% | 11.42% | 5.93% | 16.43% | 9.11% | 4.27% | 2.08 | 2.84 | 1.22 | 0.85 | 4.71 | 547.00% | -5.00% | -4762.00% | 5.52% | 0.68 | 3.85% | 6.78% | 82.80% | 6.78% | 14.83 | 36.40 | 1.69 | 1.28 |
| KMI | Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $33.27 | 74.02B | -10% | -57% | — | -17% | 24.80 | 2.42 | 4.45 | 14.40 | 145.11 | 8.07 | 43.66% | 28.39% | 18.03% | 9.86% | 6.04% | 4.17% | 1.04 | 2.67 | 0.64 | 0.42 | 4.32 | 1709.00% | 1245.00% | 715.00% | 4.27% | 1.45 | 5.10% | 3.45% | 85.70% | 3.45% | 22.38 | 33.43 | 6.35 | 1.30 |
| MPLX | MPLX Lp | $58.94 | 59.95B | +18% | -44% | -50% | +32% | 12.27 | 4.15 | 5.10 | 11.52 | 84.67 | 13.78 | 45.23% | 40.30% | 41.57% | 34.71% | 13.21% | 12.20% | 1.78 | 4.84 | 1.23 | 0.66 | 3.26 | 1449.00% | 837.00% | -10000.00% | 0.00% | 1.82 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.65 | — | 7.11 | 1.93 |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | $154.33 | 62.18B | -26% | -58% | -67% | -94% | 14.36 | 2.24 | 0.49 | 8.90 | 12.36 | 2.44 | 4.96% | 2.52% | 3.33% | 16.03% | 5.77% | 6.19% | 0.79 | 3.21 | 1.30 | 0.82 | 2.23 | 11623.00% | -751.00% | 1702.00% | 4.20% | 0.37 | 5.65% | 2.96% | 42.40% | 4.81% | 26.03 | 31.81 | 0.66 | 3.54 |
| SLB | SLB N.V. | $51.34 | 76.77B | -18% | -55% | -97% | -71% | 22.35 | 2.89 | 2.11 | 11.69 | — | 17.43 | 18.21% | 15.28% | 9.38% | 14.28% | 14.08% | 6.50% | 0.47 | 9.80 | 1.33 | 0.88 | 1.30 | -2444.00% | -160.00% | 720.00% | 6.36% | 0.44 | 15.29% | 2.12% | 47.50% | 5.32% | 15.31 | 17.42 | 2.34 | 3.19 |
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | $204.64 | 63.57B | -32% | -58% | -77% | -90% | 28.28 | 2.80 | 0.54 | 10.77 | — | 2.80 | 4.38% | 3.51% | 1.91% | 9.74% | 10.56% | 4.36% | 0.45 | 7.76 | 3.37 | 0.33 | 0.88 | -1177.00% | -554.00% | -1292.00% | 7.57% | 0.41 | 16.48% | 2.12% | 59.80% | 7.46% | 16.78 | 14.38 | 0.59 | 5.40 |
About Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
- CEO
- Maryann T. Mannen
- Employees
- 18.3K
- Beta
- 0.71
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($83.93 ÷ $246.15) − 1 = -65.9% (DCF, example).