Investor's Craft

investorscraft@gmail.com

Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE)

Previous Close	$28.96
Intrinsic Value	$2.66
Upside potential	-91%

Previous Close

$28.96

Intrinsic Value

$2.66

Potential

-91%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue growth rate, %	36.1	34.5	33.1	31.7	30.3	29.1	27.9	26.7	25.6	24.6	23.6	22.7	21.8	21.0	20.2	19.4	18.7	18.0	17.4	16.7	16.1	15.6	15.1	14.6	14.1
Revenue, $	403	543	722	951	1239	1599	2044	2591	3255	4055	5013	6151	7492	9063	10890	13004	15434	18213	21373	24950	28980	33498	38543	44155	50372
Variable operating expenses, $m	81	109	144	190	248	320	409	518	651	811	1003	1230	1498	1813	2178	2601	3087	3643	4275	4990	5796	6700	7709	8831	10074
Fixed operating expenses, $m	-31	-34	-37	-40	-44	-47	-51	-56	-60	-66	-71	-77	-84	-91	-99	-107	-116	-126	-137	-148	-161	-175	-189	-206	-223
Total operating expenses, $m	50	75	107	150	204	273	358	462	591	745	932	1153	1414	1722	2079	2494	2971	3517	4138	4842	5635	6525	7520	8625	9851
Operating income, $m	354	468	615	801	1035	1326	1687	2128	2664	3310	4082	4998	6077	7341	8811	10510	12463	14696	17235	20109	23345	26973	31024	35529	40521
EBITDA, $m	354	468	615	801	1035	1326	1687	2128	2664	3310	4082	4998	6077	7341	8811	10510	12463	14696	17235	20109	23345	26973	31024	35529	40521
Interest expense (income), $m	16	36	45	57	73	92	116	146	183	228	282	347	424	514	620	744	886	1050	1238	1451	1693	1965	2270	2611	2990
Earnings before tax, $m	338	433	570	744	962	1234	1571	1982	2481	3082	3800	4651	5654	6827	8191	9767	11577	13646	15997	18657	21652	25008	28754	32919	37531
Tax expense, $m	91	117	154	201	260	333	424	535	670	832	1026	1256	1527	1843	2211	2637	3126	3684	4319	5037	5846	6752	7764	8888	10133
Net income, $m	247	316	416	543	702	901	1147	1447	1811	2250	2774	3395	4127	4984	5979	7130	8451	9961	11678	13620	15806	18256	20990	24031	27398
BALANCE SHEET
Cash and short-term investments, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total assets, $m	3403	4579	6093	8023	10456	13495	17255	21865	27470	34228	42312	51913	63233	76489	91915	109754	130265	153717	180392	210582	244588	282723	325307	372668	425142
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m	3403	4579	6093	8023	10456	13495	17255	21865	27470	34228	42312	51913	63233	76489	91915	109754	130265	153717	180392	210582	244588	282723	325307	372668	425142
Average production assets, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Working capital, $m	-8	-10	-14	-18	-24	-30	-39	-49	-62	-77	-95	-117	-142	-172	-207	-247	-293	-346	-406	-474	-551	-636	-732	-839	-957
Total debt, $m	889	1124	1427	1813	2300	2908	3660	4582	5702	7054	8671	10591	12855	15506	18591	22159	26261	30952	36287	42325	49126	56753	65270	74742	85237
Total liabilities, $m	681	916	1219	1605	2091	2699	3451	4373	5494	6846	8462	10383	12647	15298	18383	21951	26053	30743	36078	42116	48918	56545	65061	74534	85028
Total equity, $m	2723	3663	4875	6418	8365	10796	13804	17492	21976	27382	33850	41530	50586	61192	73532	87803	104212	122974	144314	168465	195671	226179	260246	298134	340114
Debt-to-equity ratio	0.146	0.243	0.231	0.222	0.217	0.213	0.211	0.209	0.208	0.208	0.208	0.209	0.209	0.210	0.211	0.212	0.213	0.214	0.214	0.215	0.216	0.217	0.218	0.219	0.220
Adjusted equity ratio	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800	0.800
CASH FLOW
Net income, $m	247	316	416	543	702	901	1147	1447	1811	2250	2774	3395	4127	4984	5979	7130	8451	9961	11678	13620	15806	18256	20990	24031	27398
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Funds from operations, $m	247	316	416	543	702	901	1147	1447	1811	2250	2774	3395	4127	4984	5979	7130	8451	9961	11678	13620	15806	18256	20990	24031	27398
Change in working capital, $m	-2	-3	-3	-4	-5	-7	-8	-10	-13	-15	-18	-22	-25	-30	-35	-40	-46	-53	-60	-68	-77	-86	-96	-107	-118
Cash from operations, $m	249	318	419	547	708	908	1155	1457	1824	2265	2792	3417	4153	5013	6014	7170	8497	10014	11738	13688	15882	18342	21086	24137	27516
Maintenance CAPEX, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
New CAPEX, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total CAPEX, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Free cash flow, $m	249	318	419	547	708	908	1155	1457	1824	2265	2792	3417	4153	5013	6014	7170	8497	10014	11738	13688	15882	18342	21086	24137	27516
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m	0	622	792	996	1239	1523	1853	2231	2660	3141	3676	4264	4903	5592	6326	7102	7911	8748	9602	10464	11323	12166	12980	13751	14464
Retained Cash Flow, $m	16	-941	-1211	-1544	-1947	-2431	-3008	-3688	-4484	-5406	-6468	-7680	-9056	-10605	-12340	-14271	-16409	-18762	-21340	-24152	-27205	-30508	-34067	-37889	-41980
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m	170
Cash available for distribution, $m	431	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Discount rate, %	4.90	5.15	5.40	5.67	5.96	6.25	6.57	6.89	7.24	7.60	7.98	8.38	8.80	9.24	9.70	10.19	10.70	11.23	11.79	12.38	13.00	13.65	14.33	15.05	15.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m	411	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %	100	87	76	67	60	54	48	44	40	36	33	31	29	27	25	24	22	21	20	19	18	18	17	17	16

Investor's Craft

Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

INCOME STATEMENT

BALANCE SHEET

CASH FLOW