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American States Water Company (AWR)

Previous Close
$76.76
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Moderate
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)22.87-70
Intrinsic value (DCF)2.31-97
Graham-Dodd Method13.64-82
Graham Formula25.88-66

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

American States Water Company (NYSE: AWR) is a leading regulated water and electric utility serving customers in California. Founded in 1929 and headquartered in San Dimas, California, the company operates through three key segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Services. AWR provides essential water services to over 260,000 customers across 10 California counties and distributes electricity to approximately 24,600 customers in San Bernardino County. Additionally, the company offers contracted water and wastewater services to military installations, ensuring reliable infrastructure support. As a stable utility player, AWR benefits from predictable cash flows due to its regulated operations, making it a resilient investment in the utilities sector. With a strong commitment to infrastructure investment and sustainability, American States Water Company remains a critical provider in California's essential services landscape.

Investment Summary

American States Water Company presents a stable investment opportunity due to its regulated utility business model, which ensures consistent revenue streams and dividend payouts. The company's low beta (0.636) indicates lower volatility compared to the broader market, appealing to risk-averse investors. AWR has demonstrated solid financial performance, with $595.5M in revenue and $119.3M in net income, supported by a healthy operating cash flow of $198.7M. However, its high capital expenditures ($232M) reflect ongoing infrastructure investments, which could pressure short-term liquidity. The company's dividend yield (~2.5%) is attractive, but investors should monitor regulatory risks in California, which could impact rate adjustments. Overall, AWR is a defensive play in the utilities sector with moderate growth prospects.

Competitive Analysis

American States Water Company holds a strong competitive position as a regulated water and electric utility in California, benefiting from high barriers to entry and stable demand. Its primary advantage lies in its diversified service offerings, including military base contracts, which provide additional revenue stability. Compared to peers, AWR maintains a disciplined capital allocation strategy, focusing on infrastructure upgrades to ensure long-term reliability. However, its geographic concentration in California exposes it to regulatory and drought-related risks, unlike larger national utilities with broader diversification. The company's contracted services segment provides a unique revenue stream, differentiating it from pure-play water utilities. While AWR's scale is smaller than some competitors, its operational efficiency and strong regulatory relationships help sustain margins. The company's ability to pass on capital costs through rate increases is a key strength, though regulatory delays remain a risk.

Major Competitors

  • California Water Service Group (CWT): California Water Service Group (CWT) is a direct competitor, operating as the largest investor-owned water utility in California. It serves a larger customer base (~2M people) but lacks AWR's electric segment diversification. CWT's scale provides cost advantages, but its growth is similarly constrained by California's regulatory environment.
  • American Water Works Company (AWK): American Water Works (AWK) is the largest publicly traded water utility in the U.S., with operations in 14 states. Its national diversification reduces regulatory risk compared to AWR's California focus. AWK's scale enables higher R&D spending in water technology, but it lacks AWR's military contracts segment.
  • SJW Group (SJW): SJW Group (SJW) operates in California and Texas, offering slightly more geographic diversification than AWR. Its recent merger with Connecticut Water expanded its footprint, but it remains smaller than AWR in California. SJW's growth strategy relies heavily on acquisitions, which carry integration risks.
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