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Intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp. (AA)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

➔ other valuations of AA

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  ➔ See other valuations of AA stock

Previous Close$37.06
Intrinsic Value$14.74
Upside potential  -60%
Previous Close
$37.06
Intrinsic Value
$14.74
Potential        
-60%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2021-03-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-11.0NaN
Revenue, $9286NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m8959NaN
Operating income, $m327NaN
EBITDA, $m980NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m17NaN
Tax expense, $m187NaN
Net income, $m-170NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m1607NaN
Total assets, $m14860NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m13253NaN
Average production assets, $m7553NaN
Working capital, $m1759NaN
Total debt, $m2465NaN
Total liabilities, $m9844NaN
Total equity, $m5016NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.491NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.257NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-170NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m653NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m394NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-155NaN
Free cash flow, $m549NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1759
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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