investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Atlantic American Corporation (AAME)

Previous Close$2.00
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$2.00

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Atlantic American Corporation operates as an insurance holding company specializing in life and health insurance, as well as property and casualty insurance through its subsidiaries, American Southern Insurance Company and Bankers Fidelity Life Insurance Company. The company primarily serves niche markets in the southeastern United States, offering tailored insurance products to individuals and small businesses. Its revenue model is driven by premium income, investment returns, and underwriting profits, with a focus on maintaining a balanced risk portfolio. Atlantic American competes in a highly fragmented industry, where its regional expertise and conservative underwriting practices provide a competitive edge. While not a market leader, the company maintains a stable presence by leveraging long-standing customer relationships and localized distribution channels. The insurance sector's cyclical nature and regulatory complexity pose challenges, but Atlantic American's disciplined approach to risk management supports its resilience.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Atlantic American reported revenue of $188.2 million but recorded a net loss of $4.3 million, reflecting underwriting challenges or investment headwinds. The diluted EPS of -$0.19 underscores profitability pressures, though operating cash flow of $4.8 million suggests some operational liquidity. Capital expenditures were minimal at $225,000, indicating low reinvestment needs, typical for an asset-light insurance business.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company's negative net income and EPS highlight near-term earnings weakness, likely tied to claims volatility or unfavorable investment yields. With modest operating cash flow relative to revenue, capital efficiency appears constrained. However, the low capex intensity suggests earnings potential could improve if underwriting margins stabilize or investment income recovers.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Atlantic American holds $35.6 million in cash against $37.8 million of total debt, indicating a balanced liquidity position. The debt level is manageable given the company's insurance float and recurring premium income. Shareholders' equity remains a key buffer, though the FY 2024 net loss may have eroded it slightly. Solvency metrics appear adequate for its regulated industry.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

The company's top-line growth is muted, with profitability trends negative in FY 2024. Atlantic American maintains a modest dividend of $0.04 per share, signaling commitment to shareholders despite earnings volatility. Historical performance suggests cyclicality rather than secular decline, but sustained improvement in underwriting or investment income will be critical for future growth.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a low absolute share price, the market likely discounts Atlantic American's small scale and recent losses. The dividend yield may attract income-focused investors, but valuation multiples remain subdued due to inconsistent profitability. Investor expectations appear tempered, with limited premium assigned to growth or operational turnaround potential.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Atlantic American's regional focus and conservative underwriting provide stability in a competitive industry. Near-term challenges persist, but its niche positioning and strong regulatory compliance offer a foundation for recovery. The outlook hinges on improved underwriting discipline and investment performance, though macroeconomic factors like interest rates and claims frequency will heavily influence results.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), CIK 0000008177

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount