Intrinsic value of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

other valuations of AAOI

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  See other valuations of AAOI stock

Previous Close$7.47
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$7.47

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2020-12-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %22.9NaN
Revenue, $235NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m283NaN
Operating income, $m-49NaN
EBITDA, $m-23NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m-51NaN
Tax expense, $m7NaN
Net income, $m-58NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m50NaN
Total assets, $m481NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m431NaN
Average production assets, $m260NaN
Working capital, $m106NaN
Total debt, $m92NaN
Total liabilities, $m203NaN
Total equity, $m278NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.330NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.529NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-58NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m26NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m-44NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-16NaN
Free cash flow, $m-28NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m106
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN