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Intrinsic Value of Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL)

Previous Close$12.12
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$12.12

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Accel Entertainment, Inc. operates as a leading distributed gaming operator in the U.S., specializing in video gaming terminals (VGTs) and other amusement devices primarily in bars, restaurants, and other licensed venues. The company generates revenue through a revenue-sharing model, where it places gaming machines at partner locations and splits proceeds with site owners. This asset-light approach allows Accel to scale efficiently while minimizing capital intensity. The company holds a strong position in Illinois, where it is the largest VGT operator, and has expanded into newer markets like Nevada and Montana. Its competitive edge lies in regulatory expertise, a vast network of local partnerships, and proprietary technology that optimizes machine performance and compliance. The gaming industry remains highly fragmented, but Accel’s focus on localized, small-scale venues differentiates it from casino-centric competitors.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Accel reported revenue of $1.23 billion for the period, reflecting steady demand for its gaming terminals. Net income stood at $35.3 million, with diluted EPS of $0.41, indicating moderate profitability. Operating cash flow was robust at $121.2 million, though capital expenditures of $66.5 million suggest ongoing investments in terminal upgrades and market expansion. The company’s asset-light model supports healthy cash conversion.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by high-margin recurring revenue from its VGT placements, though net margins remain modest at approximately 2.9%. Capital efficiency is supported by low upfront costs for terminal deployment, with returns bolstered by long-term site contracts. Operating cash flow covers debt service comfortably, but leverage metrics warrant monitoring given $595.4 million in total debt.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Accel maintains a solid liquidity position with $281.3 million in cash and equivalents, providing flexibility for growth or debt reduction. Total debt of $595.4 million suggests a leveraged balance sheet, but the stable cash flow profile mitigates near-term risks. The absence of dividends allows reinvestment into operations or deleveraging.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is tied to regulatory expansion and same-store terminal productivity, with recent entries into Nevada and Montana offering incremental opportunities. The company does not currently pay dividends, prioritizing reinvestment and debt management. Same-store revenue trends will be key to assessing organic growth potential in mature markets like Illinois.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely prices Accel based on its cash flow stability and expansion potential, though regulatory risks and leverage may temper multiples. Investors will focus on execution in newer markets and margin sustainability amid competitive and cost pressures.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Accel’s regulatory expertise and localized partnerships provide durable advantages in a niche segment. The outlook hinges on successful market expansion and operational efficiency, though macroeconomic sensitivity and regulatory changes remain risks. Long-term value creation depends on balancing growth with deleveraging.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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