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Intrinsic Value of ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW)

Previous Close$43.90
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$43.90

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

ACI Worldwide, Inc. operates as a leading global provider of real-time electronic payment and banking solutions, serving financial institutions, merchants, and billers. The company specializes in mission-critical software that facilitates secure, high-volume payment processing, fraud prevention, and digital banking services. Its core offerings include ACI Enterprise Payments Platform, Universal Payments, and fraud management solutions, positioning it as a key enabler of modern payment ecosystems across retail, corporate, and digital channels. ACI competes in a dynamic fintech landscape dominated by legacy providers and agile disruptors, leveraging its deep domain expertise and scalable technology to serve blue-chip clients worldwide. The company’s revenue model is primarily subscription-based, with recurring software licenses, maintenance, and transaction fees driving predictable cash flows. Its solutions are integral to the infrastructure of banks, processors, and merchants, ensuring sticky customer relationships and high switching costs. ACI’s market position is reinforced by its focus on innovation, compliance, and interoperability, making it a trusted partner in an industry undergoing rapid digital transformation.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

ACI Worldwide reported revenue of $1.59 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $203.1 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 12.7%. Diluted EPS stood at $1.91, supported by disciplined cost management. Operating cash flow was robust at $358.7 million, though capital expenditures were modest at $15.4 million, indicating efficient reinvestment in its asset-light software model.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company demonstrates solid earnings power, with operating cash flow conversion at 1.8x net income, underscoring high-quality profitability. Its capital efficiency is evident in low capex intensity (1% of revenue), typical of a scalable SaaS business. ACI’s focus on recurring revenue streams enhances visibility into future earnings, though debt levels warrant monitoring for sustained capital allocation flexibility.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

ACI maintains a balanced liquidity position with $216.4 million in cash and equivalents against $956.4 million of total debt, resulting in a net debt position of $740 million. The absence of dividends suggests a focus on deleveraging or reinvestment. The debt-to-EBITDA ratio, while not disclosed, appears manageable given stable cash flows, but refinancing risks in a higher-rate environment bear watching.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

ACI’s growth is tied to digital payment adoption, with revenue stability anchored in long-term client contracts. The company does not pay dividends, opting to retain cash for debt reduction or strategic M&A. Historical performance suggests mid-single-digit organic growth, supplemented by targeted acquisitions in adjacent payment technologies, though competitive pressures may temper upside.

Valuation And Market Expectations

At a diluted EPS of $1.91, ACI trades at a P/E multiple reflective of its niche positioning in payments infrastructure. Market expectations likely price in steady growth in electronic transactions, offset by margin pressures from R&D and competitive intensity. Valuation premiums may apply if recurring revenue mix improves, but investor sentiment remains cautious given sector volatility.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

ACI’s strengths lie in its entrenched client relationships, compliance-ready solutions, and hybrid deployment model. The shift to real-time payments globally presents a multi-year tailwind, though execution risks include integration challenges and pricing competition. Management’s ability to upsell cloud-native solutions while maintaining profitability will be critical to long-term differentiation in a consolidating market.

Sources

10-K filing, CIK 0000935036

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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