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Intrinsic Value of AAR Corp. (AIR)

Previous Close$71.46
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$71.46

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

AAR Corp. operates as a diversified aerospace and defense company, providing products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets globally. The company generates revenue through two primary segments: Aviation Services, which includes supply chain solutions, maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, and Expeditionary Services, which focuses on mobility and mission support solutions. AAR’s business model leverages its deep industry expertise, long-term customer relationships, and global logistics network to deliver mission-critical solutions. The company serves a broad customer base, including airlines, OEMs, and government agencies, positioning itself as a trusted partner in a highly specialized and regulated industry. Its competitive advantage stems from its integrated service offerings, which combine parts distribution, engineering, and technical support to enhance operational efficiency for clients. In the commercial aviation sector, AAR benefits from the cyclical recovery in air travel, while its government contracts provide stability through multi-year agreements. The company’s ability to adapt to evolving industry demands, such as sustainability initiatives and digital transformation, further strengthens its market position.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

AAR Corp. reported revenue of $2.32 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $46.3 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 2.0%. Diluted EPS stood at $1.29, indicating modest profitability. Operating cash flow was $43.6 million, while capital expenditures totaled $29.7 million, suggesting disciplined capital allocation. The company’s revenue growth and margin performance are influenced by demand fluctuations in aviation and defense markets, as well as operational efficiency improvements.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is supported by its diversified revenue streams, though net income remains sensitive to macroeconomic and industry-specific headwinds. Capital efficiency is evident in its ability to generate positive operating cash flow, which funds growth initiatives and debt servicing. AAR’s focus on high-margin services, such as MRO and aftermarket solutions, enhances its earnings stability, while its capital-light model in certain segments supports returns on invested capital.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

AAR’s balance sheet shows $85.8 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $1.07 billion, indicating a leveraged but manageable position. The debt load reflects strategic investments in growth, including acquisitions and working capital needs. Liquidity appears adequate, with operating cash flow covering interest obligations. The company’s financial health is closely tied to its ability to maintain stable cash flows and execute deleveraging over time.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth trends are driven by recovery in global air travel and increased defense spending, though supply chain disruptions pose risks. AAR does not currently pay a dividend, opting to reinvest cash flow into organic growth and strategic acquisitions. The company’s capital allocation priorities include debt reduction and opportunistic investments to expand its service offerings and geographic footprint.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values AAR at a moderate multiple, reflecting its cyclical exposure and mixed earnings trajectory. Investor expectations hinge on sustained demand in commercial aviation and defense, as well as execution on margin expansion initiatives. Valuation metrics are likely to remain volatile, mirroring broader industry dynamics and macroeconomic conditions.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

AAR’s strategic advantages include its integrated service portfolio, long-term customer contracts, and expertise in niche markets. The outlook is cautiously optimistic, with growth opportunities in aftermarket services and government contracts offsetting potential headwinds. The company’s ability to innovate and adapt to industry trends, such as sustainable aviation and digital supply chain solutions, will be critical to long-term success.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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