Intrinsic value of Air Lease Corporation (AL)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

other valuations of AL

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  See other valuations of AL stock

Previous Close$41.15
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$41.15

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2021-03-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-0.1NaN
Revenue, $2015NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m1369NaN
Operating income, $m647NaN
EBITDA, $m1514NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m631NaN
Tax expense, $m130NaN
Net income, $m501NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m1758NaN
Total assets, $m25215NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m23457NaN
Average production assets, $m19542NaN
Working capital, $m1265NaN
Total debt, $m16518NaN
Total liabilities, $m19143NaN
Total equity, $m6072NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio2.720NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.184NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m501NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m867NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m1090NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-2527NaN
Free cash flow, $m3617NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1265
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN