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Intrinsic Value of Air Lease Corporation (AL)

Previous Close$58.75
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$58.75

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Air Lease Corporation (AL) operates as a leading aircraft leasing company, providing fleet solutions to airlines worldwide. The company generates revenue primarily through leasing commercial jet aircraft to airlines under long-term contracts, which ensures stable cash flows. AL differentiates itself by focusing on modern, fuel-efficient aircraft, reducing lessees' operational costs while enhancing its own asset value. The company serves a diverse client base, including both full-service and low-cost carriers, positioning itself as a key intermediary between aircraft manufacturers and airlines. Its strategic emphasis on younger fleets and strong relationships with manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing enhances its competitive edge in the global leasing market. AL’s market position is further strengthened by its ability to secure favorable financing terms and maintain high fleet utilization rates, ensuring consistent returns in a capital-intensive industry.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Air Lease reported revenue of $2.73 billion, with net income of $427.7 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 15.6%. The company’s diluted EPS stood at $3.33, demonstrating solid profitability. Operating cash flow was robust at $1.68 billion, though capital expenditures of -$4.56 billion highlight significant investments in fleet expansion. These metrics underscore AL’s ability to balance growth with operational efficiency.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

AL’s earnings power is driven by its long-term lease contracts, which provide predictable cash flows. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to deploy debt strategically, with total debt of $20.21 billion supporting its asset-heavy model. The strong operating cash flow relative to net income indicates effective working capital management and sustainable earnings quality.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Air Lease’s balance sheet reflects a leveraged but manageable structure, with total debt of $20.21 billion offset by $472.6 million in cash and equivalents. The company’s asset base, primarily comprising leased aircraft, provides collateral for its debt. While leverage is high, the long-term nature of lease contracts mitigates liquidity risks, supporting financial stability.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

AL has demonstrated consistent growth through fleet expansion, with capital expenditures reflecting ongoing investments. The company’s dividend policy, with a payout of $1.27 per share, signals confidence in its cash flow stability. Growth is likely to be driven by increasing global demand for leased aircraft, particularly in emerging markets.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values AL based on its ability to generate stable lease income and maintain asset quality. With a focus on modern fleets and long-term contracts, the company is well-positioned to meet investor expectations for steady returns, though its valuation may be sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and airline industry dynamics.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

AL’s strategic advantages include its modern fleet, strong manufacturer relationships, and global lessee diversification. The outlook remains positive, supported by rising air travel demand and the shift toward leased aircraft among airlines. However, macroeconomic risks, such as fuel price volatility and geopolitical tensions, could pose challenges to sustained growth.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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