Investor’s Craft

Intrinsic value of Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

➔ other valuations of ALSN

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  ➔ See other valuations of ALSN stock

Previous Close$45.58
Intrinsic Value$24.10
Upside potential  -47%
Previous Close
$45.58
Intrinsic Value
$24.10
Potential        
-47%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2020-12-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-22.9NaN
Revenue, $2081NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m1547NaN
Operating income, $m534NaN
EBITDA, $m686NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m393NaN
Tax expense, $m94NaN
Net income, $m299NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m310NaN
Total assets, $m4477NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m4167NaN
Average production assets, $m3682NaN
Working capital, $m383NaN
Total debt, $m2513NaN
Total liabilities, $m3721NaN
Total equity, $m756NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio3.324NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.108NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m299NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m152NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m561NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-115NaN
Free cash flow, $m676NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m383
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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