investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of APA Corporation (APA)

Previous Close$20.11
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$20.11

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

APA Corporation operates as an independent energy company focused on the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. The company primarily generates revenue through upstream activities, with key assets in the Permian Basin, Egypt, and the North Sea. APA's diversified portfolio mitigates geopolitical and operational risks while capitalizing on global energy demand. The firm competes in a cyclical industry, balancing cost efficiency with strategic asset optimization to maintain competitiveness against larger integrated players and nimble independents. APA's market position is bolstered by its technical expertise in reservoir management and a disciplined approach to capital allocation, targeting long-term value creation. The company's international footprint provides exposure to varied pricing environments, though it remains sensitive to commodity price volatility and regulatory shifts.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

APA reported $9.7 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $804 million, reflecting an 8.3% net margin. Operating cash flow of $3.6 billion underscores robust cash generation, though capital expenditures of $2.9 billion indicate significant reinvestment needs. The diluted EPS of $2.28 suggests moderate earnings power relative to the share count of 353 million, with efficiency metrics likely influenced by commodity price swings.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company's $3.6 billion operating cash flow demonstrates strong underlying earnings power, though $2.9 billion in capex highlights the capital-intensive nature of upstream operations. Free cash flow of approximately $700 million (after capex) supports debt reduction and shareholder returns, with ROIC likely pressured by cyclical industry headwinds. APA's capital efficiency is tied to operational execution and reserve replacement success.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

APA's balance sheet shows $625 million in cash against $6.2 billion of total debt, indicating a leveraged but manageable position. The debt-to-equity ratio suggests moderate financial risk, with liquidity supported by operating cash flows. The company's ability to service debt hinges on sustained commodity prices and operational discipline, particularly given the cyclicality of its business.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Production growth trends are not explicitly provided, but the $1.00 annual dividend per share implies a yield of ~3-4% (assuming current share prices), signaling a commitment to returning capital. Dividend sustainability depends on free cash flow stability, with potential for variable payouts tied to oil price movements. APA's growth strategy likely prioritizes selective acquisitions and organic reserve development.

Valuation And Market Expectations

At a diluted EPS of $2.28, APA trades at a P/E multiple reflective of mid-cycle energy valuations. Market expectations appear balanced between near-term commodity volatility and longer-term portfolio resilience, with investor sentiment swayed by oil price trajectories and APA's cost containment efforts. The EV/EBITDA multiple would provide further context but is unavailable here.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

APA's technical expertise in complex reservoirs and geographically diversified assets provide strategic advantages, though the outlook remains tethered to oil price stability. The company's focus on operational efficiency and debt management positions it to navigate industry cycles, but macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties persist as key risks. Longer-term, energy transition pressures may necessitate portfolio adjustments.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), CIK 0001841666

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount