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Intrinsic Value of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO)

Previous Close$7.35
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$7.35

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as the largest independent McDonald’s franchisee globally, with exclusive rights to own, operate, and grant franchises in 20 Latin American and Caribbean markets. The company generates revenue primarily through restaurant sales, franchising fees, and rental income, leveraging the McDonald’s brand while adapting menus to local tastes. Its vertically integrated supply chain ensures cost efficiency and quality control. As a market leader in quick-service restaurants (QSR) across Latin America, Arcos Dorados benefits from strong brand recognition, economies of scale, and strategic locations in high-traffic urban areas. The company competes with both global QSR chains and regional players, differentiating itself through localized marketing, digital innovation, and a focus on affordability. Its expansion strategy targets underpenetrated markets while optimizing existing store performance through digital ordering and delivery partnerships.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Arcos Dorados reported revenue of $4.47 billion, with net income of $148.8 million, reflecting a net margin of 3.3%. Operating cash flow stood at $266.8 million, though capital expenditures of $327.6 million indicate ongoing reinvestment in store upgrades and expansion. The diluted EPS of $0.71 suggests modest but stable earnings power relative to its share count.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings are driven by same-store sales growth and operational leverage, though high capital expenditures for new locations and remodels pressure near-term free cash flow. Its asset-light franchising model contributes to capital efficiency, but the balance between owned and franchised units varies by market, influencing overall returns.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Arcos Dorados holds $135.1 million in cash against total debt of $1.72 billion, indicating a leveraged but manageable position. The debt load reflects expansion financing, with liquidity supported by operating cash flow. The absence of significant near-term maturities provides flexibility, though interest coverage remains a focus area given macroeconomic volatility in Latin America.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is fueled by store openings, digital adoption, and menu innovation, particularly in Brazil and Mexico. The company paid a dividend of $0.24 per share, signaling confidence in cash flow stability. However, payout ratios remain conservative to prioritize reinvestment in high-growth markets.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a P/E multiple reflective of its regional exposure, the stock prices in mid-single-digit earnings growth. Investors likely weigh Latin America’s consumer recovery potential against currency and inflationary risks embedded in its operations.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Arcos Dorados’ scale, brand partnership, and localized execution underpin its resilience. Near-term challenges include input cost inflation and currency fluctuations, but digital initiatives and value-oriented offerings position it for long-term market share gains. The outlook hinges on sustained same-store sales momentum and disciplined capital allocation.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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