investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Ardmore Shipping Corporation (ASC)

Previous Close$10.48
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$10.48

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Ardmore Shipping Corporation operates in the global maritime transportation sector, specializing in the ownership and operation of product and chemical tankers. The company generates revenue through time-charter contracts and spot market voyages, leveraging its fleet to serve refined petroleum and chemical markets. Ardmore’s strategic focus on mid-sized vessels positions it competitively in niche segments, balancing flexibility with operational efficiency. The company’s market position is reinforced by its modern, eco-friendly fleet, which aligns with tightening environmental regulations and customer demand for sustainable shipping solutions. Ardmore’s diversified client base includes major oil companies, traders, and chemical producers, reducing dependency on any single market or region. Its ability to adapt to volatile freight rates and optimize vessel deployment underscores its resilience in a cyclical industry.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Ardmore reported revenue of $405.8 million, with net income reaching $133.0 million, reflecting robust profitability. Diluted EPS stood at $3.06, indicating strong earnings per share performance. Operating cash flow was $160.4 million, supported by efficient fleet utilization and disciplined cost management. Capital expenditures of $61.5 million suggest ongoing investments in fleet maintenance and potential growth, though the company maintains a balanced approach to capital allocation.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Ardmore’s earnings power is evident in its ability to convert revenue into net income at a 32.8% margin, highlighting operational efficiency. The company’s capital efficiency is further demonstrated by its ability to generate significant operating cash flow relative to its capital expenditures, ensuring sustainable reinvestment and shareholder returns. With a disciplined approach to fleet management, Ardmore optimizes asset turnover while maintaining cost controls.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Ardmore’s balance sheet remains healthy, with $47.0 million in cash and equivalents and total debt of $44.2 million, indicating a conservative leverage profile. The low debt-to-equity ratio suggests financial stability, providing flexibility to navigate market cycles. The company’s strong liquidity position supports its dividend policy and potential growth initiatives without overextending its financial commitments.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Ardmore has demonstrated consistent growth, driven by strategic fleet deployments and favorable charter rates. The company’s dividend policy, with $1.17 per share distributed in FY 2024, reflects its commitment to returning capital to shareholders. This balance between growth investments and shareholder returns underscores management’s confidence in sustained cash flow generation and long-term value creation.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market capitalization derived from 41.7 million shares outstanding, Ardmore’s valuation reflects its earnings power and sector positioning. Investors likely price in expectations of stable freight rates and efficient fleet operations, though cyclicality in shipping markets may introduce volatility. The company’s ability to maintain profitability in varying market conditions remains a key factor in its valuation.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Ardmore’s strategic advantages include its modern, fuel-efficient fleet and diversified customer base, which mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations. The outlook remains positive, supported by global demand for refined products and chemicals, though geopolitical and regulatory factors could influence performance. Management’s focus on operational excellence and capital discipline positions the company to capitalize on opportunities while navigating industry challenges.

Sources

10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount