Intrinsic value of Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

other valuations of ASPN

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  See other valuations of ASPN stock

Previous Close$37.01
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$37.01

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2021-03-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-28.1NaN
Revenue, $100NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m122NaN
Operating income, $m-22NaN
EBITDA, $m-11NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m-22NaN
Tax expense, $m-0NaN
Net income, $m-22NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m16NaN
Total assets, $m97NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m81NaN
Average production assets, $m50NaN
Working capital, $m33NaN
Total debt, $m4NaN
Total liabilities, $m30NaN
Total equity, $m68NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.054NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.654NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-22NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m10NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m-10NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-3NaN
Free cash flow, $m-7NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m33
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN