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Intrinsic Value of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB)

Previous Close$33.14
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$33.14

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation operates as a regional bank holding company, primarily serving commercial and retail customers across Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic region. The company generates revenue through a diversified mix of interest income from loans and securities, fee-based services, and wealth management. Its core offerings include commercial and consumer banking, mortgage lending, and treasury management, positioning it as a full-service financial institution with a strong regional footprint. Atlantic Union competes in a fragmented market, leveraging its local expertise and relationship-driven approach to differentiate from larger national banks. The bank’s strategic focus on middle-market commercial clients and community-oriented retail banking provides stability, while its wealth management division adds a higher-margin revenue stream. Despite competition from both traditional and digital-first banks, Atlantic Union maintains a solid reputation for customer service and operational reliability, reinforcing its market position.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Atlantic Union reported revenue of $1.35 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $209.1 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 15.5%. Diluted EPS stood at $2.24, supported by disciplined cost management and stable interest income. Operating cash flow of $308.6 million underscores the company’s ability to convert earnings into liquidity, while capital expenditures remained minimal at $7.4 million, indicating efficient asset utilization.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by a balanced loan portfolio and steady net interest margin, with fee income contributing to revenue diversification. Capital efficiency metrics remain robust, as evidenced by the modest debt-to-equity ratio and strong cash generation. Shareholder returns are supported by consistent profitability, with diluted EPS growth reflecting effective capital allocation and operational execution.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Atlantic Union maintains a solid balance sheet, with $350.1 million in cash and equivalents providing liquidity. Total debt of $478.3 million is manageable relative to equity, reflecting prudent leverage. The bank’s asset quality and loan portfolio stability reinforce its financial health, with sufficient reserves to mitigate credit risks. The conservative capital structure aligns with regulatory requirements and supports future growth initiatives.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

The company has demonstrated steady growth, supported by organic loan expansion and strategic acquisitions. A dividend payout ratio of approximately 64% ($1.44 per share) reflects a commitment to returning capital to shareholders while retaining earnings for reinvestment. Future growth may hinge on regional economic conditions and the bank’s ability to expand its commercial lending and wealth management segments.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Atlantic Union trades at a P/E multiple reflective of its regional bank peers, with market expectations centered on stable earnings and moderate growth. Investor sentiment is likely influenced by interest rate trends and the bank’s ability to maintain net interest margins. Valuation metrics suggest a balanced risk-reward profile, with upside tied to execution in fee-income diversification and cost control.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Atlantic Union’s regional focus and relationship-based banking model provide a competitive edge in customer retention and cross-selling. The outlook remains positive, supported by a resilient loan book and disciplined expense management. Potential risks include economic cyclicality and competitive pressures, but the bank’s conservative underwriting and diversified revenue streams position it well for sustained performance.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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