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Intrinsic Value of Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL)

Previous Close$2.93
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$2.93

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. is a leading financial services holding company in Colombia, operating through its subsidiaries in banking, pension funds, insurance, and investment management. The company generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans, fees from financial services, and returns on its investment portfolio. Its diversified business model allows it to capture growth across multiple segments of Colombia’s financial sector, including retail banking, corporate lending, and wealth management. Grupo Aval holds a dominant market position as one of the largest financial conglomerates in the country, benefiting from its extensive branch network, strong brand recognition, and long-standing relationships with both individual and institutional clients. The company’s competitive edge lies in its integrated financial ecosystem, which provides cross-selling opportunities and economies of scale. However, it faces challenges from digital disruptors and regulatory changes in Colombia’s evolving financial landscape.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Grupo Aval reported revenue of COP 11.74 trillion and net income of COP 1.02 trillion, reflecting a net margin of approximately 8.6%. The diluted EPS stood at COP 855, indicating stable profitability. However, operating cash flow was negative at COP -14.04 trillion, likely due to significant working capital adjustments or loan disbursements. Capital expenditures totaled COP -662.7 billion, suggesting ongoing investments in technology or infrastructure.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is supported by its diversified revenue streams, though the negative operating cash flow raises questions about short-term liquidity management. Return metrics such as ROE or ROA are not provided, but the net income figure suggests moderate capital efficiency. The financial subsidiaries likely contribute disproportionately to earnings, given their scale in Colombia’s banking sector.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Grupo Aval’s balance sheet shows COP 7.28 trillion in cash and equivalents against total debt of COP 71.36 trillion, indicating high leverage. The debt load may reflect funding for lending activities, but the ratio warrants scrutiny for sustainability. The company’s liquidity position appears tight, given the negative operating cash flow, though its banking subsidiaries may have separate regulatory capital buffers.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Historical growth trends are not provided, but the dividend per share of COP 613.37 suggests a commitment to shareholder returns. The payout ratio is unclear without net income attribution, but the dividend could be supported by stable earnings from core banking operations. Future growth may hinge on Colombia’s economic recovery and digital transformation efforts.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Valuation metrics are unavailable, but market expectations likely factor in Grupo Aval’s dominance in Colombia’s financial sector and its exposure to macroeconomic conditions. Investors may weigh its high debt against its ability to generate consistent interest income and fee-based revenue in a competitive environment.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Grupo Aval’s strategic advantages include its market leadership, diversified financial services, and entrenched customer base. The outlook depends on Colombia’s economic stability, regulatory environment, and the company’s ability to adapt to digital banking trends. Risks include credit quality deterioration and interest rate volatility, but its scale provides resilience.

Sources

Company filings, CIK 0001504764

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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