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Intrinsic value of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

➔ other valuations of BABA

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  ➔ See other valuations of BABA stock

Previous Close$209.51
Intrinsic Value$30.66
Upside potential  -85%
Previous Close
$209.51
Intrinsic Value
$30.66
Potential        
-85%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-03-31 and quarterly data as of 2020-12-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %28.2NaN
Revenue, $71985NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m58992NaN
Operating income, $m12993NaN
EBITDA, $m18985NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m23984NaN
Tax expense, $m2904NaN
Net income, $m21080NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m53482NaN
Total assets, $m185429NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m131947NaN
Average production assets, $m62830NaN
Working capital, $m31218NaN
Total debt, $m17714NaN
Total liabilities, $m62484NaN
Total equity, $m122945NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.144NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.532NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m21080NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m5992NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m25507NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-1697NaN
Free cash flow, $m27204NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m31218
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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