investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH)

Previous Close$45.09
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$45.09

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Celsius Holdings, Inc. operates in the rapidly growing functional energy drink sector, leveraging its proprietary thermogenic formula to differentiate itself from traditional energy drink competitors. The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded beverages, distributed via retail channels, e-commerce, and partnerships with fitness-oriented retailers. Celsius has carved a niche by targeting health-conscious consumers, positioning its products as fitness-enhancing, metabolism-boosting alternatives to conventional high-sugar energy drinks. Its strategic collaborations, including a notable distribution agreement with PepsiCo, have significantly expanded its market reach and shelf presence. The brand’s emphasis on science-backed formulations and alignment with active lifestyles has helped it capture market share in a competitive industry dominated by legacy players. Celsius’s growth is further supported by increasing consumer demand for functional beverages that offer perceived health benefits beyond mere energy stimulation. The company’s ability to sustain innovation and brand loyalty will be critical as it navigates an increasingly crowded market.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Celsius reported robust revenue of $1.36 billion for FY 2024, reflecting strong demand for its energy drinks. Net income stood at $145.1 million, with diluted EPS of $0.61, indicating healthy profitability. Operating cash flow was $262.9 million, underscoring efficient cash generation, while capital expenditures were modest at $23.4 million, suggesting disciplined reinvestment. The company’s margin profile benefits from premium pricing and scalable distribution.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company demonstrates solid earnings power, with net income margins around 10.7%, supported by effective cost management and revenue growth. Capital efficiency is evident in its high operating cash flow conversion, which funds growth initiatives without excessive leverage. Celsius’s asset-light model and partnership-driven distribution enhance returns on invested capital, though scalability amid rising competition remains a focus area.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Celsius maintains a strong balance sheet, with $890.2 million in cash and equivalents against minimal total debt of $20.3 million, providing ample liquidity. The low leverage ratio and high cash reserves position the company to pursue strategic investments or weather potential market downturns. Shareholders’ equity is bolstered by retained earnings, reflecting consistent profitability.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue growth has been driven by expanding distribution and consumer adoption, though future trends may hinge on sustaining innovation. The company initiated a dividend of $0.12 per share, signaling confidence in cash flow stability. However, the payout ratio remains low, prioritizing reinvestment for growth over aggressive shareholder returns at this stage.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Celsius trades at a premium valuation, reflecting investor optimism about its growth trajectory and market positioning. The stock’s pricing assumes continued execution in expanding its product lineup and distribution footprint. Market expectations are high, with little room for missteps given competitive pressures in the energy drink sector.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Celsius’s key advantages include its differentiated product formulation, strong brand equity, and strategic PepsiCo partnership. The outlook remains positive, with growth opportunities in international markets and product diversification. However, maintaining momentum requires navigating supply chain dynamics and evolving consumer preferences. Execution risks persist, but the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the functional beverage trend.

Sources

10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount