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Intrinsic Value of Commercial Metals Company (CMC)

Previous Close$52.41
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$52.41

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) operates as a leading manufacturer, recycler, and distributor of steel and metal products, primarily serving the construction and industrial sectors. The company’s vertically integrated model spans scrap metal recycling, steel production, and downstream fabrication, enabling cost efficiencies and supply chain resilience. CMC’s core offerings include rebar, merchant bar, and structural steel, catering to infrastructure, commercial, and residential projects. Its market position is reinforced by regional mills and recycling facilities across the U.S. and Poland, providing localized service and sustainability advantages. The company differentiates itself through its circular economy approach, leveraging scrap metal recycling to reduce environmental impact and raw material costs. CMC competes in a fragmented but consolidating industry, where scale and operational efficiency are critical. Its focus on value-added products and strategic acquisitions strengthens its foothold in key growth markets, particularly in North America and Europe.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

CMC reported FY2024 revenue of $7.93 billion, with net income of $485.5 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 6.1%. Diluted EPS stood at $4.14, demonstrating solid profitability despite cyclical industry pressures. Operating cash flow of $899.7 million underscores efficient working capital management, while capital expenditures of $324.3 million indicate disciplined reinvestment in core operations.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is supported by its vertically integrated model, which mitigates input cost volatility. ROIC trends are likely healthy given steady EBITDA margins, though precise figures are unavailable. Free cash flow generation remains robust, with $575.4 million after capex, providing flexibility for dividends and strategic initiatives.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

CMC maintains a balanced capital structure, with $857.9 million in cash and equivalents against $1.19 billion in total debt. The liquidity position appears strong, with no immediate refinancing risks. The debt-to-equity ratio suggests moderate leverage, aligning with industry norms for steel producers.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue growth has been steady, driven by infrastructure demand and pricing power. The company’s $0.68 annual dividend per share yields approximately 1.5%, reflecting a conservative payout ratio and commitment to returning capital. Share buybacks or incremental dividend hikes could be feasible given sustained cash generation.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a P/E of ~8x based on FY2024 EPS, CMC appears modestly valued compared to peers, possibly reflecting cyclicality concerns. Market expectations likely hinge on steel price trends and U.S. infrastructure spending, with upside potential from tighter scrap metal supply dynamics.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

CMC’s strategic advantages include its recycling-driven cost structure, geographic diversification, and focus on high-margin fabricated products. Near-term outlook remains tied to construction activity, but long-term sustainability initiatives and capacity expansions could enhance competitiveness. Risks include commodity price swings and slower-than-expected demand recovery in key markets.

Sources

Company 10-K (CIK 0000022444), Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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