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Intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

Previous Close$1,625.83
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$1,625.83
Use floor (the cash flow based valuation has rendered a result, which is lower than an estimated minimum value derived from the company’s balance sheet analysis)

VALUATION INPUT DATA (original, your and others' valuations)

ParameterOrig.Your
Date of valuation (DoV)  
Intrinsic value (IV) at DoV, $/sh  
IV at current val. algorithm, $/sh285.59 

The original valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-09-30.

Registered users can save their valuation input data

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

Company description

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of September 30, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,100 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %26.1NaN
Revenue, $7547NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m6742NaN
Operating income, $m805NaN
EBITDA, $m1060NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m813NaN
Tax expense, $m160NaN
Net income, $m653NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m1076NaN
Total assets, $m7644NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m6568NaN
Average production assets, $m4642NaN
Working capital, $m508NaN
Total debt, $m3521NaN
Total liabilities, $m5347NaN
Total equity, $m2297NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio1.533NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.219NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m653NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m255NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m1489NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-438NaN
Free cash flow, $m1927NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m508
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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