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Intrinsic Value of Cohu, Inc. (COHU)

Previous Close$20.52
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$20.52

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Cohu, Inc. operates in the semiconductor industry, specializing in test and inspection equipment for integrated circuits (ICs) and other electronic components. The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of automated test equipment (ATE), handling systems, and thermal subsystems, serving fabless semiconductor companies, foundries, and OSAT providers. Cohu’s solutions are critical for ensuring the performance and reliability of advanced chips used in automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics applications. The company competes in a highly cyclical and R&D-intensive sector, where technological differentiation and customer relationships are key. Cohu has carved a niche by focusing on high-margin segments like advanced packaging and system-level testing, though it faces stiff competition from larger players like Teradyne and Advantest. Its market position is bolstered by strategic acquisitions, such as the purchase of Xcerra in 2018, which expanded its product portfolio and customer base. However, its growth is closely tied to semiconductor capital expenditure trends, making it susceptible to industry downturns.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Cohu reported revenue of $401.8 million but recorded a net loss of $69.8 million, reflecting margin pressures and cyclical headwinds in the semiconductor equipment market. Diluted EPS stood at -$1.49, underscoring profitability challenges. Operating cash flow was modest at $2.8 million, while capital expenditures of $10.6 million suggest ongoing investments in R&D and capacity, albeit at a restrained pace.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Cohu’s negative net income and EPS indicate limited earnings power in the current cycle, though its focus on high-margin segments could improve returns in an industry upturn. The company’s capital efficiency is constrained by cyclical demand, with operating cash flow barely covering capex. Its ability to leverage acquisitions and technology differentiation will be critical to restoring profitability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Cohu maintains a solid liquidity position with $206.4 million in cash and equivalents, against modest total debt of $18.7 million, reflecting a conservative leverage profile. The strong cash balance provides flexibility to navigate downturns or pursue strategic investments, though the lack of dividend payouts suggests a focus on preserving capital for growth or M&A opportunities.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue trends are likely tied to semiconductor equipment spending, which remains volatile. Cohu does not pay dividends, prioritizing reinvestment in innovation and market expansion. Growth prospects hinge on recovery in chip demand, particularly in automotive and industrial end markets, as well as adoption of advanced packaging technologies.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Cohu’s valuation likely reflects its cyclical exposure and recent losses, with investors pricing in a recovery in semiconductor capex. The stock’s performance will depend on margin improvement and market share gains in key test equipment segments, though near-term expectations appear muted given the FY 2024 financials.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Cohu’s strategic acquisitions and focus on high-value testing solutions provide competitive advantages, but its outlook is heavily dependent on semiconductor industry cycles. A rebound in chip demand or increased adoption of advanced packaging could drive growth, though macroeconomic and supply chain risks remain key challenges. The company’s strong balance sheet positions it to weather downturns and capitalize on recovery opportunities.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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