investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of NOW Inc. (DNOW)

Previous Close$13.99
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$13.99

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

NOW Inc. (DNOW) operates as a global distributor of energy and industrial products, primarily serving the oil and gas, chemical, and manufacturing sectors. The company generates revenue through the sale of mission-critical equipment, spare parts, and supply chain solutions, leveraging its extensive distribution network to provide just-in-time inventory management. DNOW’s business model thrives on cyclical demand in energy markets, positioning it as a key intermediary between manufacturers and end-users in highly specialized industrial environments. The company differentiates itself through technical expertise, digital procurement platforms, and localized service centers, which enhance customer stickiness. While its performance is tied to energy sector volatility, DNOW has strategically diversified into renewable energy and downstream markets to mitigate reliance on upstream oil and gas. Its market position is reinforced by long-standing relationships with major operators and a lean cost structure that supports margin resilience during downturns.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

DNOW reported $2.37 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $81 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 3.4%. The company’s operating cash flow of $298 million underscores strong working capital management, while modest capital expenditures ($9 million) indicate a capital-light model. Diluted EPS of $0.74 suggests efficient earnings conversion despite sector headwinds.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by volume-based scalability and disciplined cost control, with operating cash flow significantly exceeding net income. DNOW’s minimal debt ($42 million) and high cash reserves ($256 million) highlight prudent capital allocation, enabling flexibility for strategic investments or share repurchases. Return metrics are tempered by cyclical demand but benefit from asset-light operations.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

DNOW maintains a robust balance sheet, with $256 million in cash and equivalents against only $42 million in total debt, yielding a net cash position. This liquidity buffer supports operational resilience, while the absence of dividends allows for reinvestment or opportunistic M&A. The company’s financial health is further underscored by positive free cash flow generation.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is tied to energy sector cycles, though DNOW has expanded into adjacent industrial markets to diversify revenue streams. The company does not currently pay dividends, opting instead to prioritize organic growth and share repurchases. Recent trends suggest a focus on digital transformation and sustainability-linked product offerings to capture emerging demand.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a modest earnings multiple, DNOW’s valuation reflects its cyclical exposure but also discounts its strong cash flow and balance sheet. Market expectations appear balanced, with investors likely pricing in moderate recovery upside in energy capex alongside execution risks in diversification efforts.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

DNOW’s key advantages include its technical distribution expertise, scalable digital platforms, and lean cost structure. The outlook hinges on energy market stability and successful penetration of renewable and industrial segments. Near-term challenges include inflationary pressures, but long-term opportunities lie in supply chain digitization and energy transition tailwinds.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount