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Intrinsic Value of Ford Motor Company (F)

Previous Close$11.88
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$11.88

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Ford Motor Company operates in the global automotive industry, designing, manufacturing, and selling a diverse portfolio of vehicles, including trucks, SUVs, electric vehicles (EVs), and commercial automobiles. The company generates revenue through vehicle sales, financing services, and aftermarket parts, with a strong presence in North America and expanding footprints in Europe and China. Ford’s revenue model is diversified across retail and fleet sales, supplemented by its Ford Credit division, which provides financing solutions to dealers and customers. The company competes in a highly cyclical and capital-intensive sector, facing rivals like General Motors, Toyota, and Tesla. Ford’s market position is reinforced by its iconic brands (e.g., F-Series trucks, Mustang) and investments in EV and autonomous technology, though it lags behind pure-play EV leaders in scale. Its strategy balances legacy ICE profitability with long-term electrification bets, aiming to capture evolving consumer preferences and regulatory shifts toward sustainability.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Ford reported $185.0 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $5.9 billion, reflecting a margin of approximately 3.2%. Diluted EPS stood at $1.46, supported by robust truck and SUV sales. Operating cash flow was $15.4 billion, though capital expenditures were not disclosed, limiting efficiency metrics like ROIC. The company’s profitability remains sensitive to commodity costs and pricing dynamics in competitive markets.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Ford’s earnings power is anchored by its high-margin truck segment and Ford Credit’s steady income. However, capital efficiency is pressured by heavy R&D and capex for EV transition, with total debt of $160.9 billion outweighing cash reserves of $22.9 billion. The absence of disclosed capex complicates assessment, but leverage suggests reinvestment needs may constrain near-term returns.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

The balance sheet shows $22.9 billion in cash against $160.9 billion in total debt, indicating elevated leverage. Liquidity appears manageable given $15.4 billion in operating cash flow, but debt servicing and cyclical risks warrant monitoring. Ford Credit’s financing liabilities contribute significantly to debt, though its asset-backed structure mitigates refinancing risks.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is bifurcated: traditional segments face stagnation, while EV investments aim for future scalability. The $0.78 annual dividend per share (yield ~4% at current prices) signals commitment to shareholders, but payout sustainability depends on ICE cash flows amid EV losses. Volume trends in key markets and EV adoption rates will dictate long-term trajectory.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Ford trades at a low earnings multiple, reflecting skepticism over EV execution and cyclical headwinds. Market expectations are tempered by mixed progress in electrification and margin volatility, with valuation likely pricing in a gradual ICE-to-EV transition rather than disruptive growth.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Ford’s strengths include brand equity in trucks, scale in North America, and a balanced EV roadmap. Challenges include EV profitability, debt management, and competition. The outlook hinges on executing its ‘Ford+’ plan, with success in software-defined vehicles and cost control critical to overcoming sector-wide pressures.

Sources

Ford Motor Company 10-K (CIK: 0000037996), Bloomberg

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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