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Intrinsic Value of GMS Inc. (GMS)

Previous Close$109.70
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$109.70

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

GMS Inc. operates as a leading North American distributor of specialty building products, serving contractors and builders across residential and commercial construction markets. The company’s core revenue model hinges on distributing wallboard, ceilings, steel framing, and complementary construction materials through a network of over 300 locations. GMS differentiates itself through a value-added service approach, offering design assistance, logistics support, and job-site delivery, which fosters long-term customer relationships. Positioned in a fragmented industry, GMS leverages its scale to negotiate favorable supplier terms while maintaining regional agility. Its focus on repair-and-remodel (R&R) and light commercial segments provides resilience against cyclical downturns in new construction. The company has steadily expanded via acquisitions, enhancing geographic density and product diversification. Competitive advantages include a decentralized operating structure, deep contractor relationships, and a high-touch service model that smaller rivals struggle to replicate. Market leadership in wallboard and ceilings—coupled with cross-selling opportunities—drives wallet share growth. GMS benefits from steady demand drivers like aging housing stock and commercial retrofits, though it remains exposed to macroeconomic sensitivity in construction activity.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

GMS reported FY2024 revenue of $5.50 billion, reflecting steady demand in its core markets. Net income reached $276 million, with diluted EPS of $6.75, demonstrating disciplined cost management despite inflationary pressures. Operating cash flow of $433 million underscores efficient working capital management, while capital expenditures of $57 million indicate a capital-light model focused on incremental growth investments rather than heavy infrastructure spend.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company generates robust returns, with operating cash flow conversion at 78% of net income, highlighting earnings quality. Debt-to-EBITDA metrics suggest manageable leverage, though total debt of $1.53 billion warrants monitoring amid rising interest rates. Asset turnover remains efficient given the inventory-intensive nature of distribution, supported by just-in-time delivery capabilities that minimize carrying costs.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

GMS maintains a solid liquidity position with $166 million in cash against $1.53 billion of total debt. The balance sheet reflects typical distributor characteristics—moderate receivables and inventory balances—with no material near-term debt maturities. Financial flexibility is adequate for tuck-in acquisitions, though leverage reduction could become a priority if construction activity slows materially.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Organic growth aligns with construction market trends, supplemented by accretive M&A. The company has eschewed dividends to prioritize debt repayment and share repurchases, reflecting a capital allocation strategy favoring internal reinvestment and balance sheet optimization. Recent performance suggests mid-single-digit revenue growth potential, assuming stable housing starts and commercial construction activity.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at ~10x trailing earnings, GMS is valued in line with peers, reflecting its steady cash flows and defensive R&R exposure. The market appears to price in moderate cyclical headwinds, with valuation supported by the company’s acquisition track record and ability to consolidate regional markets. Consensus estimates imply stable margins despite input cost volatility.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

GMS’s scale, service differentiation, and acquisition pipeline provide durable competitive moats. Near-term performance will hinge on construction spending trends, though its R&R focus offers downside protection. Strategic priorities include product mix expansion (e.g., complementary exterior products) and technology investments to enhance customer stickiness. Long-term upside may emerge from housing shortage tailwinds and commercial retrofit demand.

Sources

FY2024 10-K (CIK 0001600438), company investor relations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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