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Intrinsic Value of The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

Previous Close$371.68
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$371.68

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

The Home Depot, Inc. is the world's largest home improvement retailer, operating in a highly competitive sector dominated by big-box stores and e-commerce players. The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden equipment, and related services to both do-it-yourself (DIY) customers and professional contractors. Its extensive network of over 2,300 stores across North America, combined with a robust digital platform, ensures broad market penetration and convenience for customers. Home Depot's market leadership is reinforced by its strong supply chain, exclusive product offerings, and value-added services like installation and tool rental. The company benefits from long-term trends in housing demand, renovation activity, and urbanization, positioning it as a key player in the resilient home improvement industry. Its focus on omnichannel integration and pro-customer segments further strengthens its competitive moat against rivals like Lowe's and emerging digital disruptors.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2025, Home Depot reported revenue of $159.5 billion, with net income of $14.8 billion, reflecting a net margin of approximately 9.3%. Diluted EPS stood at $14.91, demonstrating strong profitability. Operating cash flow was robust at $19.8 billion, though capital expenditures of $3.5 billion indicate ongoing investments in store upgrades and digital infrastructure. The company’s efficiency metrics remain industry-leading, supported by disciplined cost management.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Home Depot’s earnings power is underscored by its consistent ability to generate high returns on invested capital (ROIC), driven by its asset-light model and strong same-store sales growth. The company’s capital allocation prioritizes shareholder returns, with dividends and share repurchases complemented by strategic reinvestment in supply chain automation and e-commerce capabilities. Its capital efficiency is evident in its ability to sustain high margins despite inflationary pressures.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with $1.7 billion in cash and equivalents, though total debt stands at $62.3 billion, reflecting its leveraged capital structure. Debt levels are manageable given strong cash flow generation, and the company maintains investment-grade credit ratings. Liquidity remains ample, supported by undrawn credit facilities and consistent free cash flow.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Home Depot’s growth is driven by market share gains in the pro-contractor segment and digital sales expansion. The company has a history of steady dividend growth, with a dividend per share of $9.02 in FY 2025, appealing to income-focused investors. Share repurchases further enhance shareholder returns, though future growth may moderate as the housing market normalizes post-pandemic.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The stock trades at a premium valuation relative to peers, reflecting its market leadership, consistent execution, and strong cash flow visibility. Investors appear to price in sustained mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin resilience, though macroeconomic risks like interest rate sensitivity and housing slowdowns could weigh on multiples.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Home Depot’s strategic advantages include its scale, brand equity, and omnichannel capabilities. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on long-term housing trends, though near-term headwinds like inflation and labor costs require careful management. Its outlook remains favorable, supported by innovation in supply chain and digital tools, but competition and economic cyclicality pose ongoing risks.

Sources

Company 10-K, investor presentations, Bloomberg

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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