Intrinsic value of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

other valuations of HOG

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  See other valuations of HOG stock

Previous Close$40.61
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$40.61

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2021-03-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-24.4NaN
Revenue, $4054NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m4045NaN
Operating income, $m10NaN
EBITDA, $m281NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m-16NaN
Tax expense, $m-17NaN
Net income, $m1NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m3389NaN
Total assets, $m12011NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m8622NaN
Average production assets, $m861NaN
Working capital, $m1863NaN
Total debt, $m8987NaN
Total liabilities, $m10288NaN
Total equity, $m1723NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio5.216NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.161NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m1NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m271NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m1178NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-131NaN
Free cash flow, $m1309NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1863
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN