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Intrinsic value of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

Previous Close$32.34
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$32.34
Use floor (the cash flow based valuation has rendered a result, which is lower than an estimated minimum value derived from the company’s balance sheet analysis)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Cash & ST Investments
Total debt
Market cap, m$
4,967

Based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-03-31.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %31.6NaN
Revenue, $5336NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m4513NaN
Operating income, $m823NaN
EBITDA, $m988NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m819NaN
Tax expense, $m169NaN
Net income, $m650NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m2004NaN
Total assets, $m11051NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m9047NaN
Average production assets, $m835NaN
Working capital, $m1207NaN
Total debt, $m6937NaN
Total liabilities, $m8498NaN
Total equity, $m2553NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio2.717NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.316NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m650NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m165NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m976NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-120NaN
Free cash flow, $m1096NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1207
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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