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Intrinsic Value of HP Inc. (HPQ)

Previous Close$26.00
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$26.00

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

HP Inc. operates as a global provider of personal computing, printing, and related solutions, serving both consumer and commercial markets. The company generates revenue through hardware sales, including PCs, workstations, and printers, complemented by high-margin supplies, services, and subscriptions. HP maintains a strong presence in the competitive technology hardware sector, leveraging its brand recognition, extensive distribution network, and innovation in hybrid work solutions to sustain market share. Its diversified product portfolio and focus on digital transformation trends position it as a resilient player in evolving demand cycles. The printing segment, though facing secular declines, benefits from recurring revenue streams via ink and toner sales, while the PC division capitalizes on commercial upgrades and premium consumer demand. Strategic partnerships and sustainability initiatives further enhance its competitive positioning.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

HP reported $53.6 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $2.8 billion, reflecting a 5.2% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $2.81, supported by disciplined cost management. Operating cash flow of $3.7 billion underscores efficient working capital utilization, though capital expenditures were negligible, indicating a mature asset-light model. The company’s profitability is tempered by macroeconomic pressures and cyclical demand in core segments.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

HP’s earnings power is driven by stable cash flows from printing supplies and services, offsetting hardware volatility. The absence of significant capex suggests high capital efficiency, with cash generation deployed for dividends and debt reduction. However, elevated total debt of $10.9 billion necessitates ongoing liability management to maintain financial flexibility amid interest rate headwinds.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

The balance sheet shows $3.3 billion in cash and equivalents against $10.9 billion in total debt, yielding a net debt position of $7.6 billion. Liquidity appears adequate, but leverage metrics warrant monitoring. Shareholder equity is supported by retained earnings, though aggressive share repurchases could strain leverage ratios if earnings decline.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth remains muted, with PC demand normalizing post-pandemic and printing facing structural challenges. HP’s $1.10 annual dividend per share, yielding ~3-4%, signals commitment to returning capital, but sustainability depends on stable free cash flow. Strategic acquisitions or R&D investments may be limited by current payout priorities.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a P/E of ~8-10x, HP is priced as a value stock with low growth expectations. The market likely discounts secular declines in printing and cyclical PC risks, though cost controls and hybrid work trends could provide downside support. Valuation multiples reflect skepticism about long-term earnings expansion.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

HP’s scale, brand, and supply chain efficiency offer defensive advantages in downturns. Near-term challenges include soft IT spending and inflationary costs, but commercial PC refresh cycles and subscription-based printing services provide revenue stability. Success hinges on executing hybrid work solutions and managing debt while sustaining shareholder returns.

Sources

HP Inc. FY 2024 10-K, Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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INCOME STATEMENT

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