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IntroductionThe concept of valuationRevenue and revenue growthVariable costsFixed costsProduction assets

Intrinsic value of Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)

Previous Close$51.11
Intrinsic Value$24.00
Upside potential  -53%
Previous Close
$51.11
Intrinsic Value
$24.00*
Potential        
-53%
Use floor (the cash flow based valuation has rendered a result, which is lower than an estimated minimum value derived from the company’s balance sheet analysis)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Cash & ST Investments
Total debt
Market cap, m$
36,222

Based on fiscal year data as of 2021-09-30 and quarterly data as of 2022-03-31.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %6.1NaN
Revenue, $23668NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m21109NaN
Operating income, $m2559NaN
EBITDA, $m3404NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m2505NaN
Tax expense, $m868NaN
Net income, $m1637NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m1342NaN
Total assets, $m41890NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m40548NaN
Average production assets, $m28013NaN
Working capital, $m751NaN
Total debt, $m9114NaN
Total liabilities, $m24328NaN
Total equity, $m17562NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.519NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.414NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m1637NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m845NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m2487NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-428NaN
Free cash flow, $m2915NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m751
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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