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Intrinsic Value of The Macerich Company (MAC)

Previous Close$16.41
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$16.41

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

The Macerich Company is a premier real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in the ownership, acquisition, and management of high-quality retail properties across the United States. The company’s portfolio primarily consists of regional shopping centers, which serve as hubs for community engagement, dining, and entertainment. Macerich focuses on Class-A assets in densely populated, affluent markets, leveraging its expertise in tenant mix optimization and property redevelopment to drive foot traffic and rental income. The company’s strategic emphasis on experiential retail—blending traditional shopping with leisure and dining—positions it to capitalize on evolving consumer preferences. Despite broader retail sector challenges, Macerich maintains a competitive edge through its premium locations and adaptive leasing strategies, targeting high-performing tenants such as luxury brands and omnichannel retailers. Its market position is reinforced by long-term relationships with anchor tenants and a disciplined approach to capital allocation, ensuring resilience in cyclical downturns.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Macerich reported revenue of $918.2 million, reflecting its ability to generate stable cash flows from its retail properties. However, the company posted a net loss of $194.1 million, driven by non-cash impairments and elevated interest expenses. Operating cash flow stood at $283.4 million, underscoring the underlying strength of its core operations. The absence of capital expenditures suggests a focus on maintaining rather than expanding its asset base in the near term.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Macerich’s diluted EPS of -$0.78 highlights near-term earnings challenges, likely tied to macroeconomic headwinds and sector-specific pressures. The company’s capital efficiency is constrained by high leverage, though its operating cash flow demonstrates an ability to service debt. The dividend payout of $0.51 per share indicates a commitment to shareholder returns despite profitability pressures, supported by recurring rental income.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Macerich’s balance sheet shows $89.9 million in cash against total debt of $5.06 billion, reflecting a leveraged position common among REITs. The debt load necessitates prudent liquidity management, though the company’s asset quality provides collateral support. Absent significant near-term maturities, Macerich has flexibility to navigate refinancing risks, but interest rate volatility remains a key monitorable.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth prospects are tempered by sector-wide challenges, though Macerich’s focus on redevelopment and tenant diversification offers avenues for incremental NOI growth. The dividend yield, while modest, aligns with the company’s prioritization of balance sheet stability. Future dividend sustainability will hinge on occupancy rates and leasing spreads, which have shown resilience in premium properties.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Market valuation likely reflects Macerich’s mixed earnings performance and sector uncertainties. Investors may discount its high-quality assets due to leverage concerns, but long-term upside could emerge from successful redevelopments and a retail recovery. Comparable REIT metrics suggest the stock trades at a discount to NAV, offering potential for revaluation if operational trends improve.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Macerich’s strategic advantages lie in its prime retail locations and adaptive asset management. While near-term headwinds persist, its focus on experiential retail and tenant diversification positions it for recovery as consumer spending stabilizes. The outlook remains cautious but supported by the company’s operational discipline and premium property portfolio.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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