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Intrinsic Value of Moog Inc. (MOG.A)

Previous Close$185.06
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$185.06

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Moog Inc. operates as a precision motion and fluid controls manufacturer, serving aerospace, defense, industrial, and medical sectors. The company generates revenue through high-performance components, subsystems, and integrated systems, leveraging proprietary technologies in electromechanical actuation, motion control, and fluid handling. Its aerospace and defense segments dominate revenue, driven by long-term contracts with government agencies and commercial aviation clients. Moog maintains a competitive edge through R&D investments and engineering expertise, positioning itself as a trusted supplier in mission-critical applications. The industrial and medical segments provide diversification, with growth tied to automation and healthcare advancements. Moog’s market position is reinforced by its technical specialization, regulatory compliance, and entrenched customer relationships, though it faces cyclical demand in certain end markets.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Moog reported $3.61 billion in revenue for FY2024, with net income of $207.2 million, reflecting a 5.7% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $6.40, supported by disciplined cost management. Operating cash flow of $202.3 million and capital expenditures of $156 million yielded modest free cash flow, indicating reinvestment needs. The company’s efficiency metrics align with capital-intensive industrial peers, though margins could benefit from higher-margin product mix shifts.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The firm’s earnings power is underpinned by stable aerospace/defense contracts and aftermarket services, which provide recurring revenue. ROIC trends are tempered by cyclical R&D and capex demands, but Moog’s niche expertise allows for pricing power in critical applications. Debt-to-EBITDA ratios remain manageable, though interest coverage could tighten if macroeconomic pressures escalate.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Moog’s balance sheet shows $61.7 million in cash against $874.1 million in total debt, suggesting moderate leverage. Liquidity is adequate, with operating cash flow covering interest obligations. The capital structure reflects a balance between growth funding and shareholder returns, with no immediate solvency risks given predictable cash flows from long-cycle contracts.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue growth is tied to aerospace recovery and defense budget trends, with industrial automation offering upside. The $1.14 annual dividend per share implies a ~30% payout ratio, signaling a commitment to returning capital while retaining flexibility. Share buybacks are minimal, with focus on organic growth and strategic acquisitions.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a mid-teens P/E, Moog’s valuation reflects its cyclical exposure and intermediate growth profile. Investors likely price in steady defense spending and commercial aerospace demand, though supply chain risks and input cost inflation could weigh on multiples absent margin expansion.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Moog’s technical differentiation and entrenched defense relationships provide resilience, but diversification into higher-growth industrial and medical markets remains key. Near-term headwinds include supply chain normalization and R&D commercialization risks, while long-term opportunities lie in electrification and autonomous systems. Management’s execution on margin improvement will be critical to outperforming sector benchmarks.

Sources

10-K (CIK: 0000067887), company filings

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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