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Intrinsic Value of Old National Bancorp (ONB)

Previous Close$23.16
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$23.16

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Old National Bancorp (ONB) operates as a regional bank holding company, providing a comprehensive suite of financial services including commercial and retail banking, wealth management, and treasury services. The company primarily serves small to mid-sized businesses, individual consumers, and institutional clients across the Midwest and Southeast. Its revenue model is anchored in net interest income from loans and deposits, supplemented by fee-based services such as trust and investment management. ONB competes in a fragmented regional banking sector, leveraging its community-focused approach and localized decision-making to differentiate from larger national players. The bank has strengthened its market position through strategic acquisitions, expanding its footprint while maintaining a disciplined risk management framework. Its diversified loan portfolio spans commercial real estate, C&I lending, and residential mortgages, providing stability amid economic cycles. ONB’s emphasis on relationship banking and digital innovation positions it as a resilient player in competitive regional markets.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

For FY 2024, Old National Bancorp reported revenue of $1.89 billion and net income of $539 million, translating to a diluted EPS of $1.68. The company generated $622 million in operating cash flow, reflecting efficient operations and strong core earnings. With no reported capital expenditures, ONB demonstrates disciplined cost management, allowing it to allocate resources toward growth initiatives and shareholder returns.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

ONB’s earnings power is underscored by its ability to maintain profitability in a challenging interest rate environment. The bank’s net interest margin and fee income diversification contribute to stable earnings. Capital efficiency is evident in its ability to deploy excess liquidity effectively, though further details on ROE or ROA would provide deeper insight into its performance relative to peers.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

The company’s balance sheet shows $1.23 billion in cash and equivalents against $5.14 billion in total debt, indicating a manageable leverage position. ONB’s liquidity profile appears robust, supporting its lending activities and potential M&A opportunities. The absence of significant capital expenditures suggests a focus on organic growth and balance sheet optimization.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

ONB has demonstrated consistent growth through acquisitions and organic expansion, though specific YoY comparisons are unavailable. The company’s dividend policy remains shareholder-friendly, with a $0.56 annual dividend per share, reflecting a payout ratio that balances reinvestment needs with income distribution. Future growth may hinge on interest rate trends and regional economic conditions.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Based on FY 2024 results, ONB trades at a P/E multiple derived from its $1.68 EPS, though the exact market price is unspecified. Investors likely value the bank’s regional focus, stable earnings, and disciplined capital allocation. Market expectations may factor in potential Fed policy shifts and their impact on net interest margins.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

ONB’s strategic advantages include its localized expertise, diversified revenue streams, and acquisitive growth strategy. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, contingent on macroeconomic stability and successful integration of past acquisitions. Risks include interest rate volatility and competitive pressures, but the bank’s conservative underwriting and strong deposit base provide resilience.

Sources

Company filings (10-K, investor presentations), Bloomberg

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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