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Intrinsic Value of SM Energy Company (SM)

Previous Close$27.56
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$27.56

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

SM Energy Company operates as an independent energy firm focused on the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company primarily targets high-return assets in the Permian Basin and South Texas, leveraging advanced drilling techniques to optimize resource extraction. Its revenue model is driven by hydrocarbon sales, with production volumes and commodity prices serving as key performance indicators. SM Energy maintains a competitive position by prioritizing operational efficiency and cost discipline, allowing it to navigate volatile energy markets effectively. The company’s strategic acreage positions it to capitalize on long-term demand for fossil fuels, though it faces sector-wide challenges such as regulatory pressures and the transition to renewable energy. By focusing on low-breakeven projects and disciplined capital allocation, SM Energy aims to sustain profitability while balancing growth and shareholder returns.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, SM Energy reported revenue of $2.67 billion and net income of $770.3 million, reflecting strong operational execution amid favorable commodity prices. Diluted EPS stood at $6.67, underscoring robust profitability. The company generated $1.78 billion in operating cash flow, which supported $1.31 billion in capital expenditures, indicating efficient reinvestment in high-return projects. These metrics highlight SM Energy’s ability to convert production into cash flow effectively.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

SM Energy’s earnings power is evident in its ability to deliver substantial net income and operating cash flow relative to its capital expenditures. The company’s focus on high-margin basins enhances capital efficiency, as seen in its disciplined spending and strong returns. With $1.78 billion in operating cash flow against $1.31 billion in capex, SM Energy demonstrates a balanced approach to growth and profitability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

SM Energy’s balance sheet shows total debt of $2.78 billion, with no reported cash and equivalents. The absence of cash reserves suggests a reliance on operating cash flow for liquidity, though the company’s strong cash generation mitigates near-term risks. Debt levels remain manageable given its profitability, but further deleveraging could enhance financial flexibility.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

SM Energy’s growth is tied to its Permian and South Texas assets, with capital expenditures directed toward high-return projects. The company paid a dividend of $0.80 per share, reflecting a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Future growth will depend on commodity prices and operational efficiency, with a focus on sustaining production while managing costs.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely values SM Energy based on its ability to generate free cash flow and maintain profitability in a cyclical industry. With an EPS of $6.67 and a disciplined capex approach, the company is positioned to deliver shareholder returns, though its valuation remains sensitive to energy price fluctuations.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

SM Energy’s strategic advantages include its high-quality asset base and operational efficiency, which support resilience in volatile markets. The outlook hinges on commodity prices and the company’s ability to execute its development plans. While regulatory and environmental pressures pose risks, SM Energy’s focus on low-cost production provides a competitive edge.

Sources

10-K filing, CIK 0000893538

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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