investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG)

Previous Close$163.44
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$163.44

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. operates as a leading provider of property and casualty insurance solutions in the United States. The company serves a diverse clientele, including personal, commercial, and specialty lines, with a focus on middle-market businesses and affluent individuals. Its core revenue model is driven by underwriting premiums and investment income, supported by a disciplined risk management framework. Hanover differentiates itself through tailored coverage options, strong agent relationships, and a reputation for claims responsiveness. The company competes in a fragmented industry but maintains a strong regional presence, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, leveraging its underwriting expertise and localized service to sustain competitive advantages. Hanover’s market position is reinforced by its selective underwriting approach, which balances growth with profitability, and its ability to adapt to evolving risks such as climate-related perils and cyber threats.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Hanover reported revenue of $6.22 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $426 million, reflecting disciplined underwriting and investment performance. Diluted EPS stood at $11.70, demonstrating solid earnings generation. Operating cash flow was robust at $806 million, while capital expenditures remained minimal at $10.2 million, indicating efficient capital deployment. The company’s focus on underwriting discipline and expense management supports its profitability metrics.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Hanover’s earnings power is underpinned by its ability to generate consistent underwriting profits and investment income. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its strong operating cash flow relative to net income, reflecting effective working capital management. With a modest capital expenditure profile, Hanover prioritizes returning capital to shareholders while maintaining financial flexibility for growth opportunities.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Hanover maintains a solid balance sheet, with $435.5 million in cash and equivalents and total debt of $784.1 million. The company’s debt levels are manageable, supported by stable cash flows and a conservative leverage profile. Its financial health is further reinforced by a disciplined approach to risk management and capital allocation, ensuring resilience in volatile market conditions.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Hanover has demonstrated steady growth in premiums and earnings, driven by targeted market expansion and pricing discipline. The company’s dividend policy is shareholder-friendly, with a dividend per share of $3.50, reflecting a commitment to returning capital. Growth initiatives focus on expanding specialty lines and leveraging digital capabilities to enhance customer acquisition and retention.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Hanover’s valuation reflects its stable earnings profile and disciplined underwriting approach. Market expectations are anchored on the company’s ability to maintain underwriting margins and navigate industry challenges such as catastrophic losses and regulatory changes. The stock’s performance is likely influenced by its dividend yield and earnings consistency.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Hanover’s strategic advantages include its strong regional presence, underwriting expertise, and agent-centric distribution model. The outlook remains positive, with opportunities to capitalize on market hardening in certain lines and expand digital capabilities. Challenges include competitive pressures and exposure to catastrophic events, but the company’s risk management framework positions it well for sustained performance.

Sources

Company filings, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount