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IntroductionThe concept of valuationRevenue and revenue growthVariable costsFixed costsProduction assets

Intrinsic value of Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA)

Previous Close$343.05
Intrinsic Value$763.05
Upside potential  +122%
Previous Close
$343.05
Intrinsic Value
$763.05
Potential        
+122%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Cash & ST Investments
Total debt
Market cap, m$
17,945

Based on fiscal year data as of 2022-01-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-01-31.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2022(a)2023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %40.3NaN
Revenue, $8631NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m7334NaN
Operating income, $m1297NaN
EBITDA, $m1565NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m1296NaN
Tax expense, $m310NaN
Net income, $m986NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m432NaN
Total assets, $m5343NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m4911NaN
Average production assets, $m2461NaN
Working capital, $m723NaN
Total debt, $m1847NaN
Total liabilities, $m3808NaN
Total equity, $m1535NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio1.203NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.280NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m986NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m268NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m1363NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-172NaN
Free cash flow, $m1535NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m723
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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