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Intrinsic Value of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)

Previous Close$476.84
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$476.84

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a leading beauty retailer in the U.S., offering a vertically integrated model that combines prestige and mass-market cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, and haircare products under one roof. The company differentiates itself through its expansive in-store and e-commerce platforms, providing a seamless omnichannel experience. Ulta’s loyalty program, Ultamate Rewards, is a key driver of customer retention, fostering high engagement and repeat purchases. The retailer’s strategic partnerships with top-tier brands, including exclusives and limited-edition launches, reinforce its market dominance. Ulta’s store-in-store concept with Target (Ulta Beauty at Target) expands its reach into suburban and urban markets, enhancing accessibility. The company’s focus on experiential retail, including salon services and beauty advisors, creates a competitive edge in an increasingly digital landscape. With a strong foothold in the $90B+ U.S. beauty market, Ulta maintains a defensible position against pure-play e-commerce rivals and traditional department stores.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Ulta reported revenue of $11.3B for FY2025, reflecting steady growth in a competitive beauty market. Net income stood at $1.2B, with diluted EPS of $25.34, underscoring robust profitability. Operating cash flow of $1.34B highlights efficient working capital management, while capital expenditures of $374M indicate disciplined reinvestment in store expansion and digital capabilities.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is evident in its consistent margin performance, driven by a balanced mix of high-margin prestige brands and private-label offerings. Ulta’s capital efficiency is supported by strong inventory turnover and a scalable omnichannel platform, enabling sustained returns on invested capital despite inflationary pressures.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Ulta maintains a solid balance sheet with $703M in cash and equivalents, providing liquidity for growth initiatives. Total debt of $1.92B is manageable relative to operating cash flow, reflecting a prudent leverage profile. The absence of dividends allows for reinvestment in core operations and strategic acquisitions.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Ulta’s growth is fueled by store expansion, e-commerce penetration, and market share gains in prestige beauty. Comparable sales growth remains a key metric, supported by loyalty program engagement. The company does not pay dividends, prioritizing share repurchases and organic growth investments.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Ulta trades at a premium valuation, reflecting its leadership in beauty retail and growth potential. Market expectations are anchored to sustained comp growth and margin resilience, with investor focus on competitive dynamics and consumer spending trends.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Ulta’s strategic advantages include its omnichannel ecosystem, brand exclusivity, and customer-centric approach. The outlook remains positive, with opportunities in personalization, international expansion, and wellness adjacencies. Risks include macroeconomic sensitivity and rising competition from digital-native players.

Sources

Company 10-K, investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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