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Intrinsic value of United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

Previous Close$171.04
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$171.04

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Cash & ST Investments
Total debt
Market cap, m$
148,753

Based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-03-31.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %15.1NaN
Revenue, $97204NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m84394NaN
Operating income, $m12810NaN
EBITDA, $m15763NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m16595NaN
Tax expense, $m3705NaN
Net income, $m12890NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m10593NaN
Total assets, $m69405NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m58812NaN
Average production assets, $m42092NaN
Working capital, $m7365NaN
Total debt, $m25528NaN
Total liabilities, $m55152NaN
Total equity, $m14253NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio1.791NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.108NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m12890NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m2953NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m15007NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-3322NaN
Free cash flow, $m18329NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m7365
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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