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IntroductionThe concept of valuationRevenue and revenue growthVariable costsFixed costsProduction assets

Intrinsic value of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

Previous Close$132.03
Intrinsic Value$83.00
Upside potential  -37%
Previous Close
$132.03
Intrinsic Value
$83.00*
Potential        
-37%
Use floor (the cash flow based valuation has rendered a result, which is lower than an estimated minimum value derived from the company’s balance sheet analysis)

VALUATION INPUT DATA (original, your and others' valuations)

ParameterOrig.Your
Date of valuation (DoV)  
Intrinsic value (IV) at DoV, $/sh  
IV at current val. algorithm, $/sh82.85 83

The original valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-09-30.

Registered users can save their valuation input data

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

Company description

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. It produces conventional, premium, and reformulated gasolines; gasoline meeting the specifications of the California Air Resources Board (CARB); diesel fuels, and low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuels; CARB diesel; other distillates; jet fuels; blendstocks; and asphalts, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined petroleum products, as well as sells lube oils and natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned 15 petroleum refineries with a combined throughput capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day; and 12 ethanol plants with a combined ethanol production capacity of approximately 1.6 billion gallons per year. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through approximately 7,000 outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also produces and sells ethanol, dry distiller grains, syrup, and inedible corn oil primarily to animal feed customers. In addition, it owns and operates crude oil and refined petroleum products pipelines, terminals, tanks, marine docks, truck rack bays, and other logistics assets; and owns and operates a plant that processes animal fats, used cooking oils, and inedible distillers corn oils into renewable diesel. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %75.7NaN
Revenue, $113995NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m111865NaN
Operating income, $m2130NaN
EBITDA, $m4535NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m1179NaN
Tax expense, $m255NaN
Net income, $m924NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m4122NaN
Total assets, $m58544NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m54422NaN
Average production assets, $m32355NaN
Working capital, $m4314NaN
Total debt, $m15125NaN
Total liabilities, $m40114NaN
Total equity, $m18430NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.821NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.292NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m924NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m2405NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m5859NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-1665NaN
Free cash flow, $m7524NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m4314
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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