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IntroductionThe concept of valuationRevenue and revenue growthVariable costsFixed costsProduction assets

Intrinsic value of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

Previous Close$122.98
Intrinsic Value$83.00
Upside potential  -33%
Previous Close
$122.98
Intrinsic Value
$83.00*
Potential        
-33%
Use floor (the cash flow based valuation has rendered a result, which is lower than an estimated minimum value derived from the company’s balance sheet analysis)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Cash & ST Investments
Total debt
Market cap, m$
50,323

Based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-03-31.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %75.7NaN
Revenue, $113995NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m111865NaN
Operating income, $m2130NaN
EBITDA, $m4535NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m1179NaN
Tax expense, $m255NaN
Net income, $m924NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m4122NaN
Total assets, $m58544NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m54422NaN
Average production assets, $m32355NaN
Working capital, $m4314NaN
Total debt, $m15125NaN
Total liabilities, $m40114NaN
Total equity, $m18430NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.821NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.292NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m924NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m2405NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m5859NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-1665NaN
Free cash flow, $m7524NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m4314
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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