investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic ValueKelin Environmental Protection Equipment, Inc. (002499.SZ)

Previous Close$0.86
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$0.86

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2021 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Kelin Environmental Protection Equipment operates as a specialized manufacturer within China's industrial pollution control sector, focusing on air quality management solutions. The company generates revenue through the production and sale of comprehensive filtration systems, including bag filters, electrostatic precipitators, and desulfurization equipment, complemented by engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) services. Its product portfolio serves demanding industrial applications across metallurgical, power generation, solid waste incineration, and building materials industries, positioning it as an integrated provider for emission control requirements. Within the competitive landscape of Chinese environmental technology, Kelin maintains a established presence, leveraging its long-standing operational history since 1979 to cultivate client relationships in industrial centers. The company's market position is characterized by its technical specialization in particulate matter and gas treatment systems, though it operates in a fragmented sector with significant competition from both state-owned enterprises and private manufacturers. This context requires continuous innovation and cost management to maintain relevance, particularly as environmental regulations evolve and industrial customers seek more efficient compliance solutions.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

For FY2021, Kelin reported revenue of CNY 170.0 million but experienced significant financial strain with a net loss of CNY 28.99 million. The company's operational performance was challenged, as reflected in negative diluted EPS of CNY -0.16. However, it generated positive operating cash flow of CNY 41.54 million, suggesting some underlying operational cash generation capability despite the reported bottom-line loss. Capital expenditures remained relatively modest at CNY 1.35 million, indicating limited investment in capacity expansion during this period.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company's earnings power was substantially impaired in FY2021, with the net loss indicating operational challenges in converting revenue to profitability. The positive operating cash flow provides a contrasting signal, potentially reflecting working capital management or timing differences. The relationship between the cash flow generation and reported losses warrants further investigation into the company's cost structure and revenue recognition practices to assess sustainable earnings capacity.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Kelin's financial position shows concerning leverage, with total debt of CNY 266.82 million significantly exceeding cash reserves of CNY 16.32 million. This debt-heavy structure creates substantial financial risk, particularly given the company's loss-making position. The imbalance between debt obligations and liquid assets suggests potential liquidity constraints and highlights the need for careful debt management or restructuring to ensure ongoing operational viability.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Despite the challenging financial performance, the company maintained a dividend payment of CNY 0.308 per share, which appears inconsistent with its loss-making position and strained balance sheet. This dividend policy may reflect strategic considerations or historical commitments, but it raises questions about capital allocation priorities given the company's current financial condition. Growth trends appear constrained by profitability challenges and high leverage.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market capitalization of approximately CNY 162.5 million, the market valuation reflects the company's financial difficulties and operational challenges. The beta of 0.80 suggests moderate sensitivity to broader market movements, potentially indicating investor perception of the company as having somewhat defensive characteristics within the industrial sector, though this must be weighed against its specific financial vulnerabilities.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Kelin's primary strategic advantages include its long-established presence in China's environmental protection sector and specialized expertise in industrial filtration systems. However, these strengths are counterbalanced by significant financial challenges including persistent losses and high leverage. The outlook remains challenging, requiring successful operational turnaround and debt management to capitalize on China's continuing environmental regulatory demands. The company's ability to navigate these financial constraints while maintaining technological relevance will be critical to its future prospects.

Sources

Company Annual ReportShenzhen Stock Exchange filings

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount