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Intrinsic Value of Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)

Previous Close$280.39
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$280.39

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Autodesk, Inc. is a global leader in design and engineering software, serving industries such as architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media. The company operates on a subscription-based revenue model, offering cloud-based solutions like AutoCAD, Revit, and Fusion 360, which enable digital transformation for professionals and enterprises. Autodesk’s dominance in building information modeling (BIM) and computer-aided design (CAD) positions it as a critical enabler of innovation in infrastructure, product development, and digital content creation. The company’s transition to a recurring revenue model has enhanced predictability, while its focus on industry-specific workflows strengthens its competitive moat against rivals like Dassault Systèmes and Bentley Systems. Autodesk’s strategic partnerships with cloud providers and its investments in AI-driven design tools further solidify its market leadership in a rapidly digitizing world.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Autodesk reported revenue of $6.13 billion for FY 2025, with net income of $1.11 billion, reflecting a robust 18.1% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $5.12, demonstrating strong profitability. Operating cash flow of $1.61 billion highlights efficient cash generation, while modest capital expenditures of $40 million indicate a capital-light model. The company’s subscription-based model drives high-margin recurring revenue, supporting stable financial performance.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Autodesk’s earnings power is underscored by its ability to convert 26.2% of revenue into operating cash flow, signaling efficient operations. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its low capex requirements relative to cash flow, allowing for reinvestment in R&D and strategic acquisitions. With no dividends, Autodesk prioritizes growth initiatives and share repurchases, enhancing shareholder value through capital allocation.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Autodesk maintains a solid balance sheet with $1.60 billion in cash and equivalents, offset by $2.56 billion in total debt. The company’s net debt position of $0.96 billion is manageable given its strong cash flow generation. Liquidity remains healthy, supporting ongoing operations and strategic investments without significant financial strain.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Autodesk’s growth is driven by secular trends in digital transformation, with increasing adoption of cloud-based design tools. The company does not pay dividends, opting instead to reinvest in innovation and market expansion. Its focus on AI and automation in design workflows positions it for sustained growth in a competitive landscape.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Autodesk’s valuation reflects its leadership in high-growth software markets, with investors pricing in continued expansion in recurring revenue and margin improvement. The stock’s premium multiples align with its strong competitive position and long-term growth potential, though execution risks in a dynamic tech environment remain a consideration.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Autodesk’s strategic advantages include its entrenched industry position, subscription-based model, and innovation in AI-driven design tools. The outlook remains positive, supported by global infrastructure spending and digital adoption trends. However, competition and macroeconomic volatility could pose challenges to sustained growth.

Sources

Autodesk FY 2025 10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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