investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation (AENT)

Previous Close$5.35
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$5.35

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation operates as a leading wholesale distributor of entertainment products, including physical media such as DVDs, Blu-rays, vinyl records, and video games. The company serves a broad customer base, including retailers, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer channels, leveraging its extensive distribution network to ensure efficient product delivery. Its revenue model is built on bulk sales to retailers and strategic partnerships with content providers, positioning it as a critical intermediary in the entertainment supply chain. Despite the shift toward digital media, Alliance Entertainment maintains relevance by catering to niche markets and collectors who value physical media. The company differentiates itself through deep inventory management, competitive pricing, and exclusive distribution agreements. Its market position is reinforced by long-standing relationships with major studios and independent labels, allowing it to adapt to evolving consumer preferences while sustaining steady demand in a competitive sector.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Alliance Entertainment reported revenue of $1.10 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $4.58 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 0.4%. Operating cash flow stood at $55.77 million, indicating solid cash generation from core operations. Capital expenditures were minimal at $183,000, suggesting efficient asset utilization and low reinvestment requirements. The diluted EPS of $0.09 underscores modest but positive earnings power.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is supported by its wholesale distribution model, which benefits from economies of scale. With operating cash flow significantly exceeding net income, Alliance Entertainment demonstrates strong cash conversion efficiency. The minimal capital expenditures highlight a capital-light business model, allowing for higher free cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Alliance Entertainment’s balance sheet shows $1.13 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $109.83 million, indicating a leveraged position. The debt-to-equity ratio suggests reliance on external financing, though operating cash flow provides some coverage. The absence of dividend payments aligns with a focus on debt management and potential reinvestment in operations.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue growth trends are influenced by the broader decline in physical media demand, offset by niche market resilience. The company has not instituted a dividend policy, prioritizing liquidity and debt reduction. Future growth may hinge on strategic acquisitions or diversification into complementary product categories to mitigate sector headwinds.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market capitalization yet to be determined, valuation metrics are not fully contextualized. Investors likely weigh the company’s ability to sustain profitability amid industry shifts, with a focus on cash flow stability rather than high growth. The modest EPS suggests cautious market expectations.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Alliance Entertainment’s strategic advantages include its entrenched distribution network and supplier relationships. The outlook remains cautious due to secular declines in physical media, but opportunities exist in collector markets and exclusive distribution deals. Operational efficiency and cost control will be critical to navigating industry challenges.

Sources

Company filings, CIK 0001823584

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount