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Intrinsic Value of AFC Gamma, Inc. (AFCG)

Previous Close$4.70
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$4.70

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

AFC Gamma, Inc. operates as a specialty finance company focused on providing secured loans and other credit facilities to institutional borrowers in the cannabis industry. The company primarily serves state-licensed operators, offering flexible financing solutions tailored to the unique regulatory and operational challenges of the sector. AFC Gamma’s expertise in underwriting and structuring loans positions it as a key capital provider in an industry with limited access to traditional banking services. The cannabis lending market is highly fragmented, with AFC Gamma distinguishing itself through deep industry knowledge, conservative underwriting, and a disciplined risk management approach. Its loan portfolio is diversified across multiple states, mitigating geographic concentration risks while capitalizing on the sector’s growth potential. The company’s competitive edge lies in its ability to navigate complex regulatory environments and offer non-dilutive financing to operators scaling their businesses. As cannabis legalization expands, AFC Gamma is well-positioned to capture incremental demand for specialized lending products.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

AFC Gamma reported revenue of $35.8 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with net income of $16.8 million, reflecting a robust net margin of approximately 47%. The company’s operating cash flow of $21.6 million underscores its ability to convert earnings into cash efficiently. With no capital expenditures, AFC Gamma maintains a capital-light model, focusing on deploying funds into high-yielding loans rather than fixed assets.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s diluted EPS of $0.80 demonstrates its earnings power, supported by a disciplined underwriting process and a focus on secured lending. AFC Gamma’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to generate strong returns while managing credit risk, with its loan portfolio structured to prioritize collateral coverage and cash flow visibility from borrowers.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

AFC Gamma’s balance sheet shows $103.6 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $188.6 million, indicating a conservative leverage profile. The company’s liquidity position provides flexibility to fund new loans and navigate market volatility. Its debt is likely structured to match the duration of its loan assets, aligning liability management with revenue streams.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

AFC Gamma’s dividend per share of $1.92 highlights its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, supported by stable cash flows from its loan portfolio. Growth prospects are tied to the expansion of legal cannabis markets, with the company poised to benefit from increasing demand for specialized financing as the industry matures.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely values AFC Gamma based on its dividend yield and the risk-adjusted returns of its loan portfolio. Investors may focus on the sustainability of its payout ratio and the credit quality of its borrowers, given the inherent risks in the cannabis sector.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

AFC Gamma’s strategic advantages include its niche focus, underwriting expertise, and first-mover status in cannabis lending. The outlook remains positive, contingent on regulatory tailwinds and the company’s ability to maintain underwriting discipline while scaling its portfolio in a high-growth but evolving industry.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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