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Intrinsic Value of Alico, Inc. (ALCO)

Previous Close$32.83
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$32.83

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Alico, Inc. operates as an agribusiness and land management company primarily focused on citrus production in Florida. The company generates revenue through the cultivation, harvesting, and sale of citrus fruits, primarily oranges used for juice processing. Alico owns and manages extensive acreage, leveraging economies of scale and vertical integration to optimize production efficiency. The company operates in a cyclical and weather-dependent industry, facing competition from both domestic and international citrus producers. Alico’s market position is strengthened by its long-standing relationships with processors and its ability to adapt to fluctuating commodity prices. The company also engages in land leasing and conservation programs, diversifying its revenue streams beyond agricultural production. Alico’s strategic focus on high-yield citrus varieties and sustainable farming practices enhances its competitive edge in a challenging sector.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Alico reported revenue of $46.6 million for the fiscal year ending September 2024, with net income of $7.0 million, translating to diluted EPS of $0.91. Operating cash flow was negative at -$30.5 million, reflecting significant capital expenditures of -$17.9 million. The company’s profitability metrics indicate operational challenges, likely influenced by volatile citrus prices and input costs, though it maintained positive net income.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Alico’s earnings power is constrained by the cyclical nature of the citrus industry, with diluted EPS of $0.91 reflecting moderate profitability. The negative operating cash flow suggests reinvestment needs, but the company’s ability to generate net income demonstrates resilience. Capital efficiency is under pressure due to high capex, likely tied to orchard maintenance and land management initiatives.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Alico’s balance sheet shows $3.2 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $92.1 million, indicating a leveraged position. The debt load may constrain financial flexibility, though the company’s asset base, including agricultural land, provides collateral. Shareholders’ equity is supported by positive retained earnings, but liquidity remains a concern given the negative operating cash flow.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Alico’s growth is tied to citrus market dynamics, with limited near-term expansion visibility. The company paid a dividend of $0.20 per share, signaling a commitment to shareholder returns despite operational headwinds. Long-term growth depends on yield improvements, commodity price trends, and potential land monetization opportunities.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely values Alico based on its agricultural asset base and cash flow potential, though earnings volatility may suppress multiples. Investors may focus on land value and dividend sustainability, with the current payout appearing manageable but sensitive to operational performance.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Alico’s strategic advantages include its scalable citrus operations and diversified land use. However, the outlook remains cautious due to industry cyclicality and debt levels. Success hinges on efficient capital allocation, weather resilience, and potential non-core asset sales to strengthen the balance sheet.

Sources

Company filings, CIK 0000003545

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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