US · ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
- Sector
- Technology · Software - Application
- Headquarters
- Tysons, VA 22102
- Website
- alarm.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$47.13
Market cap 2.39B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $97.07 | +105.96% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $28.13 | -40.31% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $25.83 | -45.2% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $41.00 | -13% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | |||||
| 2012 | |||||
| 2013 | $1.73 | $4.93 | |||
| 2014 | $3.32 | $12.47 | |||
| 2015 | $21.41 | $36.42 | $268.19 | $0.00 | $15.58 |
| 2016 | $31.64 | $57.38 | $143.64 | $4.75 | $7.11 |
| 2017 | $38.59 | $56.30 | $232.15 | $6.76 | $22.95 |
| 2018 | $58.15 | $65.35 | $220.79 | $6.75 | $14.04 |
| 2019 | $44.89 | $58.24 | $166.78 | $10.70 | $29.50 |
| 2020 | $87.24 | $79.00 | $176.41 | $15.20 | $47.92 |
| 2021 | $64.44 | $86.37 | $220.74 | $15.27 | $29.77 |
| 2022 | $48.59 | $104.24 | $130.88 | $14.67 | $22.56 |
| 2023 | $74.96 | $102.56 | $16.30 | $18.85 | $20.38 |
| 2024 | $58.92 | $102.43 | $12.46 | $24.03 | $36.11 |
| 2025 | $47.48 | $97.07 | $15.17 | $25.83 | $41.00 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s (ALRM) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $97.07
- Current price
- $47.13
- AI upside
- +105.96%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$28.13
-40.31% upside
Graham-Dodd
$25.83
-45.2% upside
Graham Formula
$41.00
-13% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| ALRM | Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. | $47.13 | 2.39B | +106% | -40% | -45% | -13% | 17.96 | 2.79 | 2.34 | 10.90 | 241.96 | 4.51 | 63.10% | 13.43% | 13.11% | 16.72% | 13.34% | 6.26% | 1.34 | 7.85 | 1.92 | 1.66 | 0.73 | 742.00% | 759.00% | -3018.00% | 5.80% | 0.23 | 17.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.76% | 18.68 | 18.51 | 2.51 | 2.46 |
| CXM | Sprinklr, Inc. | $5.82 | 1.47B | +623% | +2% | -23% | +33% | 15.54 | 3.09 | 2.37 | 34.11 | 10.76 | 3.36 | 72.11% | 3.01% | 15.27% | 18.83% | 21.05% | 10.10% | 0.08 | — | 1.65 | 1.50 | -2.26 | 14444.00% | 874.00% | 4038.00% | 3.80% | 0.15 | 63.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.50% | 60.68 | 20.26 | 1.83 | 2.32 |
| GRND | Grindr Inc. | $11.38 | 2.1B | +219% | +208% | -76% | +52% | 23.05 | 46.45 | 4.96 | 17.21 | — | -7.10 | 72.40% | 28.71% | 21.54% | -224.09% | 43.47% | 18.76% | 8.53 | 7.16 | 1.90 | 1.83 | 2.16 | -16622.00% | 2764.00% | 4974.00% | 6.45% | 1.67 | 60.66% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.63% | 19.78 | 17.74 | 5.68 | 4.24 |
| NATL | NCR Atleos Corporation | $44.28 | 3.27B | +35% | -55% | — | -56% | 21.84 | 8.78 | 0.81 | 4.49 | 29.52 | -1.72 | 24.37% | 10.98% | 3.72% | 48.87% | 26.79% | 2.89% | 0.56 | 1.77 | 0.96 | 0.53 | -0.31 | 7398.00% | 86.00% | 1659.00% | 6.76% | 0.19 | 15.63% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 81.58% | 6.92 | 13.83 | 0.76 | 1.51 |
| NP | Neptune Insurance Holding… | $20.82 | 1.97B | — | — | — | +736% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 66.41% | 57.37% | 29.00% | -9.18% | -22.18% | 77.03% | -0.37 | 3.91 | 0.73 | 0.28 | 1.89 | 5192.00% | 4057.00% | 21616.00% | — | 1.03 | -20.08% | — | 0.00% | — | — | — | — | — |
| ODD | Oddity Tech Ltd. | $11.77 | 669.94M | +705% | +2,387% | +32% | +433% | 6.33 | 1.77 | 0.87 | 2.54 | 75.02 | 2.43 | 72.69% | 14.67% | 13.67% | 32.63% | 84.71% | 14.05% | 0.10 | — | 5.24 | 3.75 | -2.79 | 843.00% | 2516.00% | -3554.00% | 11.94% | 0.76 | 73.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 47.62% | 2.76 | 3.92 | 0.41 | 2.52 |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | $80.66 | 2.13B | +12% | +19% | -38% | -93% | 17.29 | 1.91 | 0.90 | 9.35 | — | 2.69 | 26.61% | 6.84% | 5.22% | 11.49% | 13.62% | 6.10% | 0.13 | 63.96 | 1.71 | 1.42 | -1.52 | -624.00% | -703.00% | 2317.00% | 15.83% | 0.38 | 39.23% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.52% | 11.35 | 5.43 | 0.78 | 3.57 |
| RUM | Rumble Inc. | $5.41 | 2.35B | +408% | -38% | — | — | -5.05 | -27.10 | 17.91 | -4.89 | -2.71 | -16.59 | -45.02% | -137.04% | -354.35% | -358.99% | 185.07% | -137.82% | -0.03 | — | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.34 | 18621.00% | 1794.00% | -1656.00% | -5.24% | -0.40 | 127.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.11% | -12.21 | -17.82 | 16.74 | -1.71 |
| SPNS | Sapiens International Cor… | $43.45 | 2.43B | -14% | -68% | -95% | -60% | 21.21 | 3.19 | 2.82 | 13.01 | 139.74 | 8.64 | 43.90% | 15.83% | 13.31% | 15.57% | 20.96% | 10.45% | 0.13 | 217.34 | 2.24 | 2.11 | -0.94 | 1518.00% | 540.00% | 1310.00% | 5.18% | 0.55 | 24.07% | 2.08% | 44.10% | 6.02% | 16.06 | 17.37 | 2.54 | 6.17 |
| WBTN | WEBTOON Entertainment Inc… | $11.25 | 1.5B | +146% | -50% | -94% | — | -7.88 | 0.82 | 0.89 | -5.51 | -23.90 | 1.92 | 25.14% | -7.47% | -10.67% | -11.24% | -10.48% | -8.24% | 0.01 | -2237.76 | 2.67 | 2.45 | 4.91 | 3297.00% | 512.00% | -16280.00% | 0.39% | 0.06 | 0.49% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 29.62% | -6.19 | 131.68 | 0.46 | 2.39 |
| YOU | Clear Secure, Inc. | $48.64 | 4.67B | +10% | +77% | — | +28% | 18.79 | 25.80 | 5.09 | 16.14 | — | 40.83 | 85.81% | 20.70% | 27.09% | 129.75% | -45.91% | 19.53% | 0.00 | — | 1.01 | 0.92 | -0.36 | -2821.00% | 1691.00% | 2096.00% | 7.48% | 0.49 | -84.48% | 2.00% | 37.70% | 7.82% | 20.83 | 11.32 | 4.31 | 3.80 |
About Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based solutions for smart residential and commercial properties in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other. The company provides interactive security solutions to control and monitor their security systems, as well as connected security devices, including door locks, motion sensors, door locks, garage doors, Internet of Things, thermostats, and video cameras; and video monitoring solutions, such as video analytics, live streaming, video doorbell, video clips, video alerts, continuous high definition recording, and commercial video surveillance solutions. It also offers intelligent automation and energy management solutions comprising scenes button; smart thermostat schedules; responsive savings; precision comfort; energy usage monitoring; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning monitoring services; whole home water safety solutions; geo-services; and demand response programs. In addition, the company provides commercial solutions, such as daily safeguards, commercial grade video, energy savings, protection for valuables and inventory, temperature monitoring, multi-site management and access control, early identification, simple to use, professionally supported, and easy to maintain. Further, it offers service provider solutions, including a permission-based online portal that offers account management, sales, marketing, training, and support tools; sales, marketing, and training services; and home builder programs, as well as wellness solutions. The company serves residential and commercial subscribers. Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Tysons, Virginia.
- CEO
- Stephen S. Trundle
- Employees
- 2.02K
- Beta
- 0.80
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($28.13 ÷ $47.13) − 1 = -40.31% (DCF, example).