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Intrinsic Value of Amcor plc (AMCR)

Previous Close$9.30
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$9.30

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Amcor plc operates as a global leader in developing and producing responsible packaging solutions across food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical, and consumer goods industries. The company specializes in flexible and rigid packaging, leveraging advanced materials science to enhance product safety, shelf life, and sustainability. With a diversified geographic footprint and strong R&D capabilities, Amcor serves blue-chip clients, positioning itself as a critical partner in the circular economy by prioritizing recyclable and reusable packaging innovations. The company’s scale and vertical integration allow it to maintain cost efficiencies while meeting stringent regulatory and environmental standards, reinforcing its competitive moat in a fragmented market. Its focus on sustainable packaging aligns with global trends toward reduced plastic waste, giving it an edge in customer retention and long-term contracts.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Amcor reported $13.64 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $730 million, reflecting a 5.4% net margin. Operating cash flow stood at $1.32 billion, demonstrating robust cash generation. Capital expenditures of $492 million indicate ongoing investments in capacity and sustainability initiatives. The company’s ability to convert revenue into cash efficiently supports its operational flexibility and reinvestment strategies.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Diluted EPS of $0.50 underscores Amcor’s earnings stability despite macroeconomic pressures. The company’s capital allocation prioritizes high-return projects, evidenced by disciplined capex and steady cash flow conversion. Its asset-light model in certain segments enhances capital efficiency, while strategic acquisitions and partnerships bolster long-term earnings potential.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Amcor’s balance sheet shows $588 million in cash against $7.19 billion in total debt, indicating a leveraged but manageable position. The debt load is typical for capital-intensive packaging firms, supported by strong cash flows. Liquidity remains adequate, with operating cash flow covering interest obligations and funding dividends without strain.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Amcor’s growth is driven by sustainability trends and emerging market demand, offsetting slower mature markets. The $0.50 annual dividend per share, yielding ~4%, reflects a commitment to shareholder returns. Payout ratios are sustainable, with room for incremental increases tied to earnings growth.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a mid-teens P/E, Amcor’s valuation aligns with peers, pricing in steady growth and margin resilience. Market expectations hinge on execution in sustainable packaging and cost management, with limited upside from multiple expansion absent accelerated top-line growth.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Amcor’s scale, innovation pipeline, and sustainability focus provide durable advantages. Near-term challenges include input cost volatility, but long-term demand for eco-friendly packaging supports a stable outlook. Strategic partnerships and regulatory tailwinds position the company for incremental market share gains.

Sources

Company filings, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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